The cryptocurrency market is showing strong signs of recovery, reigniting investor interest in high-potential layer-1 blockchains. As the total market cap approaches $2.5 trillion—just 20% below its all-time high—speculation is growing about which emerging networks could replicate the explosive growth seen by Solana and Avalanche during the 2020–2021 bull cycle.
This article explores the key drivers behind last cycle’s top-performing blockchains, evaluates whether SUI and APTOS possess the fundamentals to become breakout stars in the current market, and offers data-driven price projections based on historical patterns.
Market Outlook: How Close Are We to the Next Bull Peak?
In November 2021, the crypto market peaked at nearly $3 trillion**. After a prolonged bear market that bottomed out around $800 billion, we've now rebounded to approximately $2.5 trillion**—a promising recovery.
If this bull run mirrors the previous one in scale, where market capitalization grew roughly 20x from its low, we could see a peak near $16 trillion. While that's an extremely optimistic scenario—approaching the total market value of gold—a more conservative comparison with U.S. equities offers a realistic benchmark.
During the last cycle, crypto represented about 6% of the U.S. stock market’s value at its peak. With the S&P 500 potentially reaching $71 trillion in a similar growth trajectory, a 6% share would place crypto’s market cap between **$4 trillion and $6 trillion**.
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For this analysis, we’ll use $4.5 trillion as our projected bull market cap—a 80% increase from current levels. This suggests substantial upside potential across the ecosystem, especially for scalable, developer-friendly chains.
Lessons from Last Cycle: What Made Solana and Avalanche Shine?
To identify future winners, we must first understand what fueled past success. Solana (SOL) surged 173x, while Avalanche (AVAX) rose 36.5x—driven not just by speculation, but by strong fundamentals:
High Performance & Low Transaction Costs
Solana’s Proof of History (PoH) and Avalanche’s triple-chain architecture enabled fast, low-cost transactions, making them ideal alternatives to Ethereum’s congested network.
- Solana: ~$0.00025 per transaction
- Avalanche: ~1 AVAX for thousands of operations
This efficiency attracted developers and retail users alike.
Thriving Ecosystems in DeFi, NFTs, and GameFi
- Solana: Hosted breakout projects like Serum, Raydium, and Magic Eden (NFT marketplace). The StepN fitness app boom further boosted adoption.
- Avalanche: Launched the $180 million Avalanche Rush initiative, drawing major protocols like Aave and Curve, increasing Total Value Locked (TVL) from $300M to $11B in months.
Institutional Backing and Strategic Funding
Both received early investments from top-tier firms like Andreessen Horowitz and Polychain Capital, boosting credibility and accelerating development.
Resilience Through Challenges
Despite Solana’s 2021 network outage, continued upgrades restored confidence. Avalanche focused on metaverse integration, expanding use cases.
These factors highlight four critical success indicators:
- Ecosystem diversity
- Strong narrative alignment (e.g., NFTs, GameFi)
- Interoperability with major chains
- Developer incentives and funding
Let’s examine how today’s contenders stack up.
Key Metrics: Solana & Avalanche at Their Peak
| Metric | Solana | Avalanche |
|---|---|---|
| Total Raised | $359M | $327M |
| Peak TVL | $14B | $11B |
| Daily Active Users | ~400K | ~200K |
| dApp Count | >350 | >200 |
These figures set a benchmark for evaluating new entrants like SUI and APTOS.
SUI vs APTOS: Can They Be the Next Breakout Chains?
Both SUI and APTOS are built using Meta’s Move programming language, emphasizing security and scalability. Here's how they compare across key indicators:
Performance & Cost
- SUI: Up to 120,000 TPS, fees under $0.01
- APTOS: Up to 160,000 TPS, fees under $0.01
Both exceed Solana and Avalanche in theoretical throughput and maintain ultra-low costs.
Funding & Developer Support
- SUI: Raised $380M (public), runs Sui Grant Program
- APTOS: Raised $350M (public), supports developers via Aptos Grant Program
Funding levels are comparable to last cycle’s leaders—even adjusting for inflation.
Ecosystem Development
| Metric | SUI | APTOS |
|---|---|---|
| TVL | $1.1B | $730M |
| Daily Active Users | 10K–20K | 30K–40K |
| Core Developers | 73 | 65 |
| dApps | 86 | 188 |
While both lag behind peak Solana/Avalanche metrics, their starting positions are stronger than those chains had in 2021 (Solana began with ~$500M TVL).
However, ecosystem diversity remains limited—most dApps focus on DeFi primitives like lending and DEXs. Notably absent are projects tied to trending narratives like AI, DePIN, or PayFi.
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Additionally, cross-chain interoperability is still developing, creating friction for user onboarding—a hurdle both must overcome.
Price Potential: What If History Repeats?
Assuming the market reaches $4.5 trillion and SUI or APTOS captures a share equivalent to Solana or Avalanche in 2021:
Scenario 1: SUI as the New Solana, APTOS as the New Avalanche
- SUI Market Cap Target: $10.8B → ~**$31 per token**
- APTOS Market Cap Target: $4.5B → ~**$88 per token**
Scenario 2: Role Reversal – APTOS as Solana, SUI as Avalanche
- APTOS Market Cap Target: $10.8B → ~**$211 per token**
- SUI Market Cap Target: $4.5B → ~**$13 per token**
Based on current prices (~$2–$4 range), this implies:
- SUI: Potential for 6.5x to 15x return
- APTOS: Potential for 8.5x to 21x return
These projections assume successful ecosystem expansion and sustained market momentum.
FAQ: Your Questions Answered
Q: What makes a blockchain likely to explode in a bull market?
A: Key factors include high performance, low fees, strong developer support, compelling use cases (like NFTs or AI), and strategic funding programs that attract liquidity.
Q: Is it too late to invest in SUI or APTOS?
A: Not necessarily. Both are still in early stages of adoption. If they capture even a fraction of Solana’s or Avalanche’s momentum, significant upside remains—especially if new killer apps emerge.
Q: Why does programming language matter for blockchain growth?
A: Languages like Move enhance safety and resource management. However, adoption depends more on tooling, documentation, and community support than syntax alone.
Q: How important is TVL for predicting price growth?
A: TVL is a strong indicator of real usage and trust. Historically, chains with rapidly growing TVL—like Avalanche in 2021—see correlated token price increases.
Q: Could Layer 2s reduce the need for new L1s?
A: Yes. With Ethereum scaling via rollups, some argue standalone L1s face tougher competition. However, specialized chains like SUI and APTOS offer unique architectures that may still capture niche demand.
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Final Thoughts: Will This Cycle Have Super L1s?
While SUI and APTOS show promise, the landscape has changed. The rise of Layer 2 solutions means raw speed and low cost are no longer differentiators—they’re table stakes.
Moreover, trends like “app-chains” (e.g., Uniswap launching its own chain) suggest fragmentation rather than consolidation around a few dominant L1s.
Still, if either SUI or APTOS can foster a viral application—just as Solana did with NFTs—they could trigger a flywheel of adoption and capital inflow.
The opportunity is there—but execution will decide everything.
All price predictions are speculative and based on historical analogies. Conduct your own research before making investment decisions.