U.S. Spot XRP ETF Odds Near Solana, Litecoin

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The prospect of a spot XRP ETF receiving approval from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has surged dramatically, with current estimates placing the odds at 95%. This positions XRP as one of the most likely candidates for ETF approval in 2025—just behind Litecoin and Solana in the race for regulatory green lights.

As the cryptocurrency market evolves and institutional interest grows, the SEC’s stance on digital asset ETFs appears to be shifting. Analysts now believe that multiple spot crypto ETFs could be approved within the year, marking a pivotal moment for altcoin adoption in traditional finance.

Rising Approval Odds for Major Altcoins

Bloomberg Intelligence ETF analysts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas have recently updated their projections, raising approval odds for several spot crypto ETFs to 90% or higher. Their assessments are based on increased engagement between ETF issuers and the SEC, including S-1 filing amendments and public comments.

For XRP, the approval probability has climbed from 85% to 95%, reflecting growing confidence in a favorable outcome. This momentum mirrors similar shifts for other major digital assets:

All now carry an estimated 90% chance of ETF approval, signaling broad regulatory openness beyond just Bitcoin and Ethereum.

👉 Discover how ETF approvals could reshape crypto investing in 2025.

Why XRP Stands Out

XRP, currently ranked as the fourth-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, has long faced regulatory scrutiny due to the SEC’s 2020 lawsuit against Ripple Labs. However, recent court rulings have clarified that XRP is not inherently a security when sold to retail investors, creating a stronger foundation for an ETF application.

This legal distinction—combined with clear use cases in cross-border payments and growing institutional custody infrastructure—positions XRP uniquely among altcoins seeking ETF status.

While the SEC has not yet issued a formal decision timeline, the upward revision in odds suggests that staff-level discussions are advancing. Any final approval would require clearance of registration statements and a favorable vote from commissioners.

Litecoin and Solana Lead the Pack

Despite XRP’s high odds, Litecoin (LTC) remains the frontrunner for the first non-Bitcoin/Ethereum spot ETF approval. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) previously classified Litecoin as a commodity—a designation that significantly strengthens its regulatory positioning.

Canary Capital’s proposed Litecoin ETF was among the first to show signs of SEC engagement, including early-stage filing reviews. With fewer legal ambiguities compared to other altcoins, LTC continues to lead in perceived approval likelihood.

Solana (SOL), meanwhile, has gained rapid traction due to its robust ecosystem growth and increasing spot market liquidity. The SEC recently requested updates to S-1 filings from multiple Solana ETF applicants—an indication that review processes are active and progressing.

These developments suggest that while XRP is close behind, Litecoin and Solana remain slightly ahead in the regulatory queue.

The Role of Staking and Broader Crypto Products

Beyond standard spot ETFs, the SEC is also evaluating more complex products, including those tied to staking mechanisms and niche altcoins such as TRON (TRX). However, according to Seyffart, funds associated with politically themed tokens or lacking clear regulatory frameworks—such as any “TRUMP”-linked ETF—are unlikely to advance, given the absence of formal rulemaking or commodity classification.

This underscores a key trend: the SEC favors assets with established legal clarity, transparent markets, and strong issuer compliance.

Market Implications of Multiple ETF Approvals

If the SEC approves even one spot altcoin ETF in 2025, it could unlock billions in institutional capital. Historical patterns following Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF launches show significant inflows within months of approval.

For XRP specifically, an ETF could:

Analysts caution, however, that timing remains uncertain. Even with high odds, no approvals are guaranteed until official announcements are made.

👉 See how institutional adoption is transforming digital asset markets.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

What is a spot XRP ETF?

A spot XRP ETF is an exchange-traded fund that directly holds XRP tokens in custody and tracks their real-time market price. Unlike futures-based funds, it offers investors direct exposure to the underlying asset without derivatives.

Why does the SEC matter for crypto ETFs?

The SEC regulates investment products in the U.S. and must approve any ETF before it can be listed on national exchanges. Their evaluation focuses on investor protection, market manipulation risks, and whether the asset qualifies as a security or commodity.

How likely is a Litecoin ETF compared to XRP?

Currently, Litecoin holds a slight edge due to its commodity classification by the CFTC and fewer legal challenges. However, XRP’s 95% approval odds indicate it's nearly equally probable, especially following recent court rulings.

Will multiple altcoin ETFs be approved at once?

It's possible but unlikely. The SEC typically approves one product category at a time. A Litecoin or Solana ETF may come first, followed by others like XRP in subsequent months.

What happens if a spot XRP ETF is approved?

Approval would likely trigger increased demand from institutional investors, improved liquidity, and greater mainstream recognition. It could also encourage similar applications for other altcoins.

Are staking-based crypto ETFs likely soon?

Not immediately. While under review, staking ETFs face additional regulatory hurdles related to governance and reward distribution. They remain lower priority than simple spot funds.

Final Outlook: A Transformative Year Ahead

2025 could mark a turning point for cryptocurrency adoption in traditional finance. With approval odds exceeding 90% for multiple assets—including XRP, Solana, Litecoin, and others—the path toward diversified crypto ETF offerings is clearer than ever.

While timing remains uncertain, the trend is undeniable: regulatory momentum is building. Investors should stay informed about filing updates, public comments, and commission decisions throughout the year.

👉 Stay ahead of the next wave of crypto innovation—explore what’s next in digital assets.

The convergence of legal clarity, market maturity, and institutional demand suggests that spot altcoin ETFs are no longer a question of if, but when. And for XRP, that moment may be closer than many expect.