The XRP price has dropped 5% over the past 24 hours, reflecting broader market risk-off sentiment driven by geopolitical tensions and macroeconomic uncertainty. On June 13, XRP reached $2.14 amid a surge in trading volume—jumping 80% to $4.6 billion—yet the momentum failed to hold. Now, the cryptocurrency is struggling to defend the psychologically significant $2 support level. With a bearish rounding top pattern forming on the four-hour chart and large holders—commonly known as whales—offloading 150 million tokens, market participants are questioning whether XRP can stabilize or if a deeper correction lies ahead.
Technical Outlook: Bearish Rounding Top Signals Potential Drop
A rounding top pattern has emerged on XRP’s four-hour chart, a classic technical formation that often precedes a trend reversal from bullish to bearish. This pattern typically develops after an extended uptrend, where price action gradually forms a rounded peak before breaking down through a defined neckline. In XRP’s case, the breakdown occurred following a broader crypto market selloff, pushing the price below the critical $2.12 support.
Historically, the measured move following a confirmed rounding top breakdown equals the vertical distance from the peak to the neckline. In this scenario, that implies a potential 9% drop from the breakdown point, which could drive XRP down to $1.93—its lowest level in over two months.
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Confirming Indicators Point to Downside Pressure
Technical indicators are aligning with this bearish narrative:
- MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD line has dipped into negative territory, while the histogram continues to print red bars, signaling weakening bullish momentum and sustained selling pressure.
- On-Balance Volume (OBV): The OBV indicator is trending downward, indicating that selling volume is outpacing buying volume. This reflects strong distribution activity and a lack of conviction among buyers, even during price dips.
Despite positive sentiment from Ripple’s CEO regarding the XRP Ledger’s potential to disrupt traditional financial messaging systems like SWIFT, market participants appear unconvinced. Investor focus remains fixated on technical structure and on-chain behavior rather than long-term narratives.
Whale Activity Raises Red Flags
On-chain data from Santiment reveals concerning behavior among large XRP holders. Wallets holding between 10 million and 100 million XRP have collectively reduced their holdings by 150 million tokens over the past five days—dropping from 7.64 billion to 7.49 billion XRP.
This distribution phase suggests that whales are capitalizing on recent price strength rather than accumulating during pullbacks. Notably, their holdings are now at their lowest level since late April, reinforcing the idea that smart money is exiting positions.
Crucially, these addresses have shown no interest in buying the dip, which typically signals strong support. Instead, their continued selling adds downward pressure and undermines confidence in a near-term recovery.
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Key Support and Resistance Levels to Watch
As of now, XRP is testing a make-or-break zone:
- Support: $2.00 (psychological level), followed by $1.93 (projected target from rounding top).
- Resistance: $2.12 (recent breakdown point), then $2.33 (upper boundary of the rounding top pattern).
A sustained move above $2.33 would invalidate the bearish pattern and could reignite bullish momentum—especially if coinciding with positive regulatory news, such as progress on a spot XRP ETF.
Conversely, failure to hold $2 could accelerate selling, potentially dragging XRP toward $1.85 in a worst-case scenario, particularly if broader market conditions deteriorate further.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
Can XRP price fall below $2?
Yes. A confirmed breakdown below $2 would validate the bearish rounding top pattern and likely trigger additional selling pressure, opening the door for a drop to $1.93 or lower.
Why are whales selling XRP?
Large holders may be taking profits after recent gains or positioning for anticipated downside. Their lack of accumulation during dips suggests weak confidence in short-term price stability.
What would reverse the bearish outlook for XRP?
A reclaim of $2.33 would negate the rounding top pattern and signal renewed bullish control. Positive developments—such as regulatory clarity or ETF approval—could also shift sentiment.
Is $1.93 a guaranteed target?
No target is guaranteed. While technical patterns suggest $1.93 as a potential downside objective, external factors like market sentiment, macro news, or sudden buying pressure can alter the trajectory.
How reliable is the rounding top pattern?
The rounding top is a well-documented reversal pattern in technical analysis. While not infallible, it gains credibility when confirmed by volume and supporting indicators like MACD and OBV.
Could XRP recover if it drops below $2?
Yes. Even if XRP briefly dips below $2, a quick recovery with strong volume could indicate healthy support and set up a bounce. However, prolonged trading below this level would be bearish.
What’s Next for XRP?
The immediate future of XRP hinges on two key factors: technical structure and whale behavior. With the rounding top breakdown confirmed and distribution intensifying, bears currently hold the upper hand. However, crypto markets are inherently volatile, and sentiment can shift rapidly—especially around regulatory catalysts.
Investors should closely monitor:
- Whether $2 holds as resilient support.
- Any reversal signs on the four-hour and daily charts.
- Changes in whale wallet activity.
- Developments related to SEC decisions or ETF filings.
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While short-term pressure favors downside movement, medium-to-long-term prospects for XRP remain tied to adoption of the XRP Ledger, Ripple’s partnerships, and regulatory outcomes. For now, traders should prioritize risk management and avoid aggressive long positions until clear bullish confirmation emerges.
Final Thoughts
XRP is at a critical juncture. The confluence of technical breakdowns and on-chain selling paints a cautious picture for the near term. Holding above $2 remains essential for preserving bullish structure—but without strong buying support or whale participation, that outcome appears uncertain.
As always in crypto, staying informed and agile is key. Whether you're trading or investing, understanding both technical patterns and on-chain dynamics can help you navigate volatility with greater confidence.
Core Keywords: XRP price, rounding top pattern, whale selling, $2 support, technical analysis, on-chain data, bearish outlook, XRP Ledger