Bitcoin has long been a magnet for both admiration and controversy. Stories of early adopters turning modest investments into life-changing fortunes dominate headlines, fueling widespread "FOMO" — the fear of missing out. But behind every success story, there are equally compelling tales of those who almost made it — pioneers who saw the potential, spread the word, even profited early — yet ultimately walked away before the real surge.
This is the story of two such figures: a once-zealous Bitcoin evangelist who turned critic, and a curious student who let a golden opportunity slip by. Their journeys reveal a deeper truth — knowing about Bitcoin early doesn’t guarantee success; what matters is holding through uncertainty.
The Rise and Retreat of a Bitcoin Pioneer
In the early 2010s, few in China were talking about Bitcoin. One of the first voices to recognize its potential was Duan Hongbin, better known as "Lao Duan" — a financial commentator and one of China’s earliest Bitcoin advocates.
Back in 2010, Duan stumbled upon Bitcoin through Google Reader. He was instantly captivated. By 2011, he published his first major article: “What Can Appreciate 3000x in a Year?” In it, he made a bold claim: everyone should own at least one Bitcoin.
At the time, Bitcoin traded for around $15 (100 RMB). Duan argued that with a fixed supply of 21 million coins, growing adoption could make even a single Bitcoin extremely valuable. His logic was simple: scarcity + trust = value.
That same year, Duan co-founded 8BTC (Babbitt), one of China’s first and most influential Bitcoin communities, alongside Chang Jia (founder of Future of Mankind) and QQagent — later known as Wu Jihan, co-founder of Bitmain. This trio helped lay the foundation for China’s crypto ecosystem.
In 2012, as Bitcoin approached its first halving event — a built-in mechanism that cuts mining rewards in half every four years — Duan launched the first Bitcoin fund in China: Lao Duan Bitcoin Fund No. 1. With 100,000 RMB in capital (40% his own), he promised investors: if Bitcoin failed, he’d repay them in full. No management fees — only 20% of profits.
His reasoning?
- Fiat currencies inflate endlessly.
- Bitcoin’s supply is fixed.
- Halving reduces new supply — basic economics suggests price rises if demand grows.
Then came the Cyprus financial crisis of 2013. Facing bank deposit seizures, citizens rushed to buy Bitcoin as a hedge. The price skyrocketed from $30 to $265 in months.
Duan’s fund surged over 10x in eight months. But instead of celebrating, he felt panic.
Investors called daily: “Sell now! Take the profit!” The pressure mounted. In April 2013, Duan liquidated the fund — locking in gains but missing what came next.
From Believer to Critic
Just five months later, in November 2013, Bitcoin surged again — this time breaking $1,000. While others rejoiced, Duan watched from the sidelines, increasingly skeptical.
He published a scathing article titled: “How Many More People Will Bitcoin’s ‘Faceless Man’ Devour?” — referencing the greedy spirit from Spirited Away who consumes everything in his path.
In it, he declared:
“Bitcoin is a global bubble unlike any before… It thrives not on utility, but on recruitment. You profit only if you find someone else to buy after you. That’s not investing — it’s pyramid logic.”
He argued that:
- Bitcoin’s real appeal was the fantasy of getting rich overnight.
- New buyers were driven not by logic, but jealousy and FOMO.
- Any news — good or bad — fueled hype. Silence was the only real threat.
Duan had officially switched sides.
He abandoned Bitcoin advocacy, promoted alternative cryptocurrencies briefly, then shifted focus to traditional stock markets. For years, he remained silent on crypto — until March 2021.
The Final Irony: Lost Coins and Missed Billions
In a rare interview, Duan revealed a stunning detail:
At his peak, he owned over 1,000 Bitcoins — worth tens of billions of RMB today. Most were sold after multiplying 10–20x. But even the remaining hundreds? Trapped in Mt. Gox, the infamous exchange that collapsed in 2014 after losing 850,000 BTC.
Now, he’s calling on other victims to join him in seeking compensation from the long-drawn bankruptcy proceedings.
Once a visionary builder of the crypto space, Duan became one of its most prominent critics — and casualties.
As crypto veteran Nangong Yuan reflected:
“Lao Duan’s biggest mistake wasn’t selling Bitcoin. It was selling himself short. If he’d held his reputation like his coins, he’d still be a kingmaker.”
The Tale of the “Zhihu Girl” Who Walked Away
In December 2011, a college student using the handle “Zhuzi” asked on Zhihu:
“A junior student has 6,000 RMB. Any investment advice?”
Chang Jia (the same Babbitt founder) replied:
“Buy Bitcoin. Keep your wallet safe. Forget about it. Check again in five years.”
At that time, 6,000 RMB could buy over 300 Bitcoins.
Today? That stash would be worth over $16 million.
But Zhuzi didn’t buy any.
Instead, in spring 2012, she took the money and went on a trip to Hangzhou with friends.
Years later, as Bitcoin soared past $60,000, thousands flooded her post with comments:
“You could’ve been a millionaire!”
“This is what regret looks like.”
Yet in a 2018 interview with Shenlian Finance, Zhuzi said:
“Even if I could go back, I’d probably do the same. My personality hasn’t changed. I wouldn’t have held through the crashes.”
She wasn’t angry or bitter — just at peace.
“Once you make a choice, don’t regret it.”
👉 Could you really hold Bitcoin through the crashes? Test your mindset before jumping in.
Why Knowing Isn’t Enough
So were they “lucky” to know early? Or unlucky to miss out?
As financial influencer ETF Changes the World put it:
“People confuse seeing information with having an opportunity. You’ve heard dozens of ‘sure bets’ — Bitcoin, Tesla,茅台 (Moutai) stock… Most failed. You forget those. You only remember the ones that exploded.”
This is survivorship bias in action.
True opportunity isn’t just awareness — it’s research, conviction, and resilience.
Even pioneers like Duan lacked the psychological stamina to hold through volatility. And Zhuzi? Her story reflects how personal values often override financial logic.
As legal scholar Luo Xiang once said:
“The greatest human suffering is the gap between knowing and doing.”
That gap is where fortunes are lost — and made.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: Did Lao Duan lose all his Bitcoin?
A: No — he sold most during early rallies. The remainder were lost in the Mt. Gox exchange collapse.
Q: Could Zhuzi have really become a millionaire?
A: Yes. With 6,000 RMB in 2011, she could have bought around 300 BTC — worth over $16 million at current prices.
Q: Is Bitcoin just a speculative bubble?
A: While volatile, Bitcoin has evolved into a recognized asset class with institutional adoption. Whether it’s a bubble depends on long-term utility and trust.
Q: What caused Bitcoin’s 2013 surge?
A: The Cyprus banking crisis triggered panic buying as people sought alternatives to traditional finance.
Q: Why do people regret not buying Bitcoin earlier?
A: Regret stems from hindsight bias — seeing past decisions through today’s price lens, ignoring the uncertainty that existed at the time.
Q: Can you still profit from Bitcoin now?
A: While early gains are unmatched, Bitcoin remains a high-conviction asset for long-term portfolios — though risks remain.
The stories of Duan and Zhuzi aren’t just about missed wealth. They’re about human nature: fear, doubt, personality, and timing.
Bitcoin didn’t just disrupt finance — it tested character.
👉 Learn how to build conviction in digital assets without falling for hype or fear.