The cryptocurrency market has shown signs of recovery over the past two trading sessions following a significant correction earlier in the week. While the short-term rebound appears strong, it's crucial to maintain a clear perspective on the broader trend. Despite bullish daily candles, structural weaknesses remain evident across key technical indicators. This article breaks down the current market dynamics for Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) futures, offering actionable insights grounded in technical analysis and trend logic.
Understanding the Broader Trend: Why Weakness Still Dominates
Before diving into entry points or price targets, traders must assess the overarching trend. On the weekly timeframe, both BTC and ETH continue to trade below major moving averages, with persistent bearish candlestick patterns—specifically consecutive red candles indicating sustained selling pressure. The MACD indicator remains in death cross formation, with both fast and slow lines positioned beneath the zero mark, reinforcing downside momentum.
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This setup suggests that while recent rallies may feel encouraging, they are best interpreted as corrective bounces rather than the start of a new uptrend. Three primary reasons support this bearish bias:
- Failure to make higher highs: A true trend reversal requires consecutive bullish momentum and breakout above prior resistance. Neither BTC nor ETH has achieved this.
- Weekly-level suppression: Price action remains confined under long-term moving averages, signaling institutional-level selling pressure.
- Ongoing macro headwinds: Regulatory scrutiny, macroeconomic uncertainty, and reduced institutional inflows continue to weigh on sentiment.
Until these factors shift, any rally should be approached with caution—and used strategically for short-side opportunities.
Bitcoin (BTC) Contract Technical Analysis – April 10
On the daily chart, Bitcoin closed with a strong bullish candle yesterday, breaking above the 5-day moving average (MA5). At first glance, this might suggest bullish momentum is returning. However, deeper inspection reveals limitations:
- The rally followed a sharp drop, fitting the classic “bear market bounce” pattern.
- MACD remains in a death cross configuration below the zero line.
- Volume during the up move was not significantly higher than recent down days—questioning conviction.
In shorter timeframes, bearish signals dominate. The 4-hour chart shows consecutive red candles after failing to break past the 83,600 resistance zone, which aligns with the prior corrective high from the last downward phase. This failure confirms strong supply in the area.
On the 1-hour chart, price continues to print lower highs and lower lows, with MACD trending downward. There is no sign of bullish divergence or momentum shift—only corrective exhaustion.
BTC Short-Term Trading Strategy
Given the confluence of resistance at 83,600, rejection patterns on multiple timeframes, and weak underlying momentum, a short position offers favorable risk-reward.
- Entry: 82,100
- Stop Loss: 82,600 (above immediate resistance)
Take Profit Targets:
- First target: 80,800 (near-term support)
- Second target: 80,300 (previous swing low)
This setup capitalizes on the market’s tendency to retest breakout levels after failed breakouts—a common pattern in range-bound or downtrending markets.
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Ethereum (ETH) Contract Technical Analysis – April 10
Similar to Bitcoin, Ethereum posted a large bullish candle on the daily chart. Yet context matters: price remains in a prolonged downtrend, with lower highs and lower lows clearly defining the trajectory. The current bounce brings price back to a key confluence zone near 1,630–1,650, where both the 50-day MA and previous swing highs are located.
From a technical structure standpoint, there’s growing potential for a head-and-shoulders top formation on the 4-hour chart:
- Left shoulder: formed during early March pullback
- Head: March peak around 1,800
- Right shoulder: current retest near 1,630
- Neckline: support around 1,500
If price fails to break above 1,650 and reverses sharply, confirmation of this bearish pattern could trigger accelerated selling toward the neckline.
Additionally, hourly momentum has turned negative again after morning rejection. Red candles dominate the short-term chart, with MACD showing bearish crossover—indicating renewed selling pressure.
ETH Short-Term Trading Strategy
With confluence at play—structural resistance, pattern development, and weakening momentum—a short entry offers solid technical alignment.
- Entry: 1,600
- Stop Loss: 1,630 (just above pattern resistance)
- Take Profit Target: 1,530 (initial support before neckline)
Traders watching this setup should monitor volume closely; a high-volume breakdown below 1,550 would increase confidence in further downside.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: Is this bounce a sign of a new bull run starting?
A: Not necessarily. Bounces after sharp declines are common in bear markets. Without sustained volume-backed breakouts above key resistance levels and bullish MACD crossovers above zero, any rally should be viewed as corrective—not structural.
Q: Why focus on weekly trends instead of daily moves?
A: Weekly charts filter out noise and reflect institutional positioning. Daily swings can mislead retail traders; higher timeframes reveal true market direction and help avoid emotional decisions.
Q: Can BTC/ETH reverse if macro conditions improve?
A: Yes. Positive shifts in interest rate expectations, regulatory clarity, or ETF inflows could reignite bullish momentum. However, until such catalysts emerge and are confirmed technically, risk management should favor conservative positioning.
Q: What’s the risk of shorting during a rebound?
A: Valid concern. That’s why stop-loss orders are essential. Position sizing and strict exits minimize damage if momentum unexpectedly accelerates upward.
Q: How do I know when a correction ends and a real reversal begins?
A: Look for three confirmations: (1) break and close above major moving averages on weekly charts, (2) MACD crossing above zero with expanding volume, and (3) fundamental or sentiment shift supporting higher prices.
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Final Thoughts: Trade Smart in Volatile Conditions
Markets often lure traders with powerful counter-trend moves after steep drops. But experience shows that most of these bounces fail without fundamental backing or structural improvement. For now, both BTC and ETH remain in corrective mode within a broader downtrend.
Successful trading isn’t about chasing every move—it’s about recognizing context, respecting trend structure, and acting decisively when probabilities are in your favor.
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By focusing on high-probability setups like the ones outlined here—and managing risk with disciplined stops—traders can navigate uncertainty with greater confidence. Stay patient, stay objective, and let price action guide your decisions.