The anticipation surrounding a potential spot XRP ETF backed by BlackRock continues to build, especially as more than 10 applications from major financial players are currently under SEC review. Firms such as Grayscale, Franklin Templeton, and Bitwise have already taken bold steps forward, officially filing for XRP ETFs and entering the federal register. Yet, despite its influential position in the asset management world, BlackRock has remained conspicuously absent from the filings.
Widely followed XRP community researcher “SMQKE” has shed light on several strategic and structural reasons behind this hesitation. While demand is growing and momentum appears favorable, multiple factors are likely influencing BlackRock’s cautious stance.
Regulatory Uncertainty Still Looms Over XRP
One of the most significant barriers to a BlackRock XRP ETF is the lack of definitive regulatory clarity from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Although a federal court previously ruled that XRP is not inherently a security when sold to retail investors, the SEC has not issued an official classification.
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SMQKE emphasizes that this absence of final regulatory guidance creates uncertainty for institutional investors. BlackRock, known for its risk-averse and compliance-first approach, typically avoids entering markets without clear regulatory frameworks. The recent delays in SEC decisions on Grayscale and 21Shares’ XRP ETF applications—now pushed to June or October 2025—further signal that federal regulators are still deliberating.
This hesitation at the regulatory level likely reinforces BlackRock’s decision to wait. The firm may be aiming to observe how the SEC treats early applicants before committing its own resources to a filing.
XRP Futures Are Live, But the Market Is Still Immature
A major milestone occurred on May 19, 2025, when CME Group officially launched XRP futures contracts. The debut saw $19 million in initial trading volume—a promising start. However, SMQKE argues that this is just the beginning of market development.
For institutional-grade ETFs, deep and liquid derivatives markets are crucial. They allow asset managers to hedge positions, manage volatility, and ensure smooth creation and redemption processes. Bitcoin and Ethereum both had years of established futures trading on regulated exchanges before BlackRock launched their respective ETFs.
XRP’s futures market, while a positive development, lacks the depth and trading history needed to support a large-scale ETF. BlackRock may be waiting for consistent open interest, tighter bid-ask spreads, and longer track records before considering entry.
Liquidity Remains Below Institutional Thresholds
Even though XRP ranks among the top altcoins by market capitalization, its on-chain and off-chain liquidity still falls short of the standards expected for ETF operations. SMQKE points out that ETFs managed by firms like BlackRock must handle substantial inflows and outflows daily without causing price slippage or operational disruptions.
High liquidity ensures that authorized participants can efficiently create and redeem ETF shares at net asset value (NAV). If liquidity is fragmented or insufficient, it increases tracking error risk and operational complexity—factors the SEC scrutinizes closely during approval reviews.
BlackRock likely wants to see sustained improvements in XRP’s trading volume across major exchanges, deeper order books, and broader custody infrastructure before moving forward.
BlackRock Is Focused on Proven Successes
Another key factor is BlackRock’s current strategic focus. The firm’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) has been a resounding success, amassing $46.6 billion in net inflows since launch—surpassing even gold-backed ETFs in year-to-date performance. Its spot Ethereum ETF has also performed strongly, attracting $4.34 billion in inflows.
With these two products driving massive adoption among institutional and retail clients alike, BlackRock has publicly stated it is doubling down on expanding access and education around Bitcoin and Ethereum.
This internal prioritization suggests that launching additional crypto ETFs—such as one for XRP—is not currently a top-tier objective. Instead, the firm appears to be consolidating its leadership in the existing crypto ETF space before diversifying further.
Monitoring First Movers Before Making a Move
SMQKE also highlights a strategic patience at play: BlackRock may be intentionally allowing other firms to test the waters first. With Grayscale, Franklin Templeton, and others leading the charge on XRP ETF applications, BlackRock can observe how the SEC responds to these filings—both in terms of approval timelines and any imposed conditions.
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If early applicants face stringent requirements or prolonged delays, BlackRock can refine its strategy accordingly. Conversely, a smooth approval process could accelerate its own plans. This “wait-and-see” approach aligns with BlackRock’s historically data-driven and low-risk market entries.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: Has BlackRock officially announced plans for an XRP ETF?
A: No, BlackRock has not filed for an XRP ETF nor made any official announcement about future plans. The company has only expressed general interest in digital assets through its existing Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs.
Q: Why are futures important for a spot ETF?
A: Futures markets provide institutions with tools for hedging risk and pricing discovery. A mature derivatives market signals stability and reduces operational risks, making it easier for regulators to approve spot ETFs.
Q: Could BlackRock file for an XRP ETF in 2025?
A: While possible, it’s unlikely unless there’s a clear SEC approval for another XRP ETF first. BlackRock tends to enter markets after regulatory pathways are established.
Q: Is XRP considered a security by the SEC?
A: The SEC has not issued a final determination. However, a 2023 court ruling found that XRP is not a security when sold to retail investors, though institutional sales were not fully cleared.
Q: How does liquidity impact ETF approval?
A: Low liquidity increases price volatility and makes it harder to create/redeem shares at fair value. The SEC requires robust liquidity to protect investors and ensure market integrity.
Q: What’s the significance of CME launching XRP futures?
A: It’s a major step toward institutional acceptance. CME futures indicate growing legitimacy and pave the way for regulated investment products like ETFs.
The Wait Continues
While excitement around an XRP ETF remains high, especially with growing institutional interest, BlackRock’s absence from the current wave of filings is not surprising. SMQKE’s analysis underscores that the firm is likely waiting for clearer regulatory signals, deeper market liquidity, and stronger derivatives infrastructure.
BlackRock’s strategy has always been about timing and risk mitigation—not being first, but being right. Given its success with Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, the firm can afford to wait until conditions are optimal before entering the XRP space.
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Institutional adoption doesn’t happen overnight. For XRP to earn a spot in BlackRock’s portfolio, it must first prove it can meet the same rigorous standards as Bitcoin and Ethereum. Until then, patience may be the most valuable asset of all.
Disclaimer: This content is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial or investment advice. Readers are encouraged to conduct independent research before making any financial decisions.