Early on the 18th, Bitcoin surged past the psychologically significant $84,000 mark, driven by continued strength in U.S. equities. However, the rally quickly lost momentum—within just four hours, the price retreated, settling back around $83,000. This volatile up-and-down movement has left investors cautious, with market analysts warning that the broader crypto market may not yet be out of correction territory.
According to CoinGecko data, Bitcoin is currently trading at approximately $83,030, reflecting a 0.6% decline over the past 24 hours. Ethereum followed a similar downtrend, slipping below $1,900 to $1,899—a 0.5% drop. Other major altcoins also saw losses: XRP fell 2.7%, while Solana (SOL) dropped 3.3%, underscoring broad-based weakness across the digital asset landscape.
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Analysts Flag Risk of Bitcoin Retesting $73K Support Zone
Joel Kruger, Market Strategist at LMAX Group, has raised concerns about the sustainability of recent gains, particularly given ongoing macroeconomic headwinds. He emphasized that while equities have been supportive lately, the S&P 500’s monthly chart still shows underlying risks of a broader market correction.
“Global trade tensions remain elevated, concerns over slowing U.S. economic growth are intensifying, and the Federal Reserve’s ability to deliver meaningful monetary easing has become increasingly uncertain. In this environment, investors are rightly worried about further equity market pullbacks.”
Kruger points out that such macro pressures could spill over into cryptocurrency markets, which have historically shown strong correlation with risk assets like tech stocks during periods of uncertainty.
He warns that Bitcoin may face additional downside pressure in the short term, potentially retesting lower support levels. Specifically, he highlights the $73,000–$74,000 range—a zone that marked Bitcoin’s peak in March 2024—as a likely candidate for a technical re-test if selling pressure persists.
This scenario aligns with classic market behavior: after sharp rallies, especially those fueled by speculative momentum, assets often undergo consolidation phases where earlier resistance levels become new support—or vulnerability zones if broken.
Why the $73K–$74K Zone Matters
That price band isn't arbitrary—it represents both a psychological threshold and a confluence of technical indicators:
- It was the highest point reached before the April 2024 consolidation.
- On-chain data from previous months shows increased accumulation activity near this level.
- A break below could trigger algorithmic stop-losses and sentiment-driven selling.
If macro conditions deteriorate—such as weaker-than-expected economic data or hawkish Fed commentary—the path back to this zone becomes more probable.
Markets Turn Attention to Upcoming Fed Decision
All eyes are now on the Federal Reserve’s upcoming monetary policy meeting. While most economists expect the central bank to hold interest rates steady, the real focus lies elsewhere: quantitative tightening (QT) policy.
David Duong, Head of Institutional Research at Coinbase, suggests that the Fed might consider pausing or even halting its balance sheet runoff program. His reasoning? U.S. banking system reserves are approaching a critical threshold.
“We believe the Fed may announce a pause—or even a full stop—to QT this week. Bank reserves have declined to around 10%–11% of GDP, which is generally viewed as the minimum buffer needed to maintain financial system stability.”
Reserve levels this low increase systemic fragility, particularly in times of stress. A halt to QT would effectively inject liquidity back into markets, potentially easing pressure on risk assets—including cryptocurrencies.
Duong notes that recent crypto market weakness stems largely from macro uncertainty and tightening liquidity conditions, rather than any fundamental issues within blockchain ecosystems themselves.
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Outlook: Bottoming Out Ahead of Next Rally?
Despite near-term volatility, Duong remains optimistic about the medium-term trajectory.
“We anticipate that the crypto market could stabilize over the coming weeks and enter a new upward phase later this year, potentially reaching fresh all-time highs.”
This outlook hinges on several factors:
- A dovish pivot or QT pause by the Fed
- Stabilization in bond yields and dollar strength
- Renewed institutional inflows
- Progress in regulatory clarity
Historically, Bitcoin has performed strongly in the quarters following rate pause announcements—especially when inflation shows signs of cooling without triggering recession.
For example, in late 2023, anticipation of a Fed pivot contributed to a 50%+ rally in BTC over Q4. A similar dynamic could unfold in Q3 or Q4 of 2025 if current macro trends reverse.
Key Keywords Driving Market Sentiment
To better understand where the market is headed, it's essential to track core themes shaping investor behavior:
- Bitcoin price correction
- Federal Reserve monetary policy
- Cryptocurrency market volatility
- Quantitative tightening (QT)
- Market liquidity
- Technical support levels
- Macroeconomic uncertainty
- Institutional crypto adoption
These keywords reflect both technical and fundamental drivers influencing trading decisions across exchanges and institutional desks.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: Why did Bitcoin drop after hitting $84,000?
A: The pullback followed a classic pattern of profit-taking after a rapid surge. With no major catalysts to sustain momentum and growing macro uncertainty, traders locked in gains, leading to short-term selling pressure.
Q: Is a retest of $73K likely for Bitcoin?
A: Yes, many analysts see $73,000–$74,000 as a key support zone based on prior price action and on-chain metrics. A break below $82K could accelerate momentum toward that range.
Q: How does the Fed’s QT policy affect crypto prices?
A: Quantitative tightening reduces liquidity in financial systems, making capital scarcer and more expensive. This typically weighs on risk assets like stocks and cryptocurrencies.
Q: Can Bitcoin still hit new highs in 2025?
A: Multiple analysts believe so—especially if the Fed shifts to rate cuts or pauses QT. Improved liquidity and renewed institutional demand could fuel another bull run.
Q: What should traders watch ahead of the Fed meeting?
A: Focus on statements regarding balance sheet runoff (QT), inflation outlook, and forward guidance on rates. Even subtle shifts can move markets significantly.
Q: Are altcoins likely to follow Bitcoin’s trend?
A: Historically, major altcoins like Ethereum and Solana tend to mirror Bitcoin’s direction during volatile periods. Divergence usually occurs only during sector-specific catalysts (e.g., protocol upgrades).
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Final Thoughts
While Bitcoin’s brief breakout above $84,000 showcased lingering bullish momentum, the swift reversal underscores ongoing fragility in sentiment. With macro risks still elevated and liquidity conditions tightening, a retest of key support near $73K appears increasingly plausible.
However, this doesn’t necessarily signal long-term bearishness. On the contrary, many institutional voices expect current weakness to set the stage for stronger rallies later in 2025—provided central banks begin to ease policy constraints.
For investors, the current phase calls for disciplined risk management and close monitoring of both technical levels and macro developments. As always in crypto, volatility creates opportunity—but only for those prepared to navigate uncertainty with clarity and conviction.