Bitcoin (BTC) surged past $109,000 on Thursday, breaking out of its recent consolidation range and edging close to its all-time high. This upward momentum comes amid improving macroeconomic conditions and renewed optimism following the U.S.-Vietnam trade agreement, which has bolstered market risk appetite. Investors are now turning their attention to the upcoming U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report, a key economic indicator that could shape the Federal Reserve’s interest rate trajectory and influence BTC’s next major move.
Market Awaits Key Employment Data for Direction
As of Thursday’s trading session, Bitcoin hovered above $109,000, with traders adopting a cautious stance ahead of the NFP release. The report is widely anticipated to provide critical clues about the Fed’s potential rate-cutting path, directly impacting the U.S. dollar’s strength and, by extension, risk assets like Bitcoin.
According to Fxstreet analyst Haresh Menghani, market expectations currently price in a near 25% chance of a rate cut during the Fed’s July 29–30 policy meeting. A September rate reduction is seen as almost certain, with growing confidence in two rate cuts by the end of 2025.
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A dovish NFP report—showing weaker-than-expected job growth—could strengthen expectations for earlier rate cuts. Lower interest rates typically reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like Bitcoin, making it more attractive to investors. Conversely, a strong jobs report may reinforce hawkish sentiment, potentially dampening BTC’s rally as higher rates keep capital anchored in traditional yield-bearing instruments.
Trade Tensions Ease, Boosting Risk Appetite
The positive momentum in crypto markets was further supported by easing geopolitical tensions. U.S. President Donald Trump announced a new trade deal with Vietnam, eliminating a 20% tariff on Vietnamese imports while securing tariff-free access to Vietnam’s markets. This bilateral agreement has been welcomed by global markets as a step toward reducing trade friction.
Additionally, Bloomberg reported that the Trump administration has lifted export license requirements for chip design software sales to China. This move reflects progress in the broader U.S.-China trade framework, aimed at easing restrictions on critical technology sectors.
These developments have enhanced investor confidence, creating a favorable environment for risk-on assets like Bitcoin. However, traders should remain alert—the current tariff suspension is set to expire on July 9. Several nations are actively negotiating tax relief deals before this deadline, which could introduce volatility if agreements stall.
Moreover, Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill” (OBBB), recently passed by the Senate and returning to the House, is expected to be finalized by Friday. The budget legislation could trigger market fluctuations depending on its fiscal implications and spending outlook.
Institutional Demand Rises as Spot ETFs See Inflows
Institutional interest in Bitcoin appears to be rebounding. According to SoSoValue, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $407.78 million in net inflows on Wednesday, a significant turnaround from the $342.25 million outflow seen the previous day. This shift signals renewed investor confidence, though sustained inflows will be necessary to propel Bitcoin toward new all-time highs.
The growing appetite for Bitcoin is further supported by expanding monetary supply. The U.S. M2 money supply rose 4.5% year-over-year in May, reaching $21.94 trillion—a bullish backdrop for hard assets like BTC that benefit from liquidity expansion.
Adding to the optimistic outlook, Standard Chartered revised its Bitcoin price forecast, projecting BTC could reach $135,000 by the end of 2025, with a potential spike to $200,000 under favorable conditions. Such institutional endorsements reinforce Bitcoin’s narrative as a long-term store of value and hedge against inflation.
Technical Outlook: Breakout Confirmed, Momentum Builds
Bitcoin successfully broke and closed above the upper boundary of its consolidation zone at $108,355, marking a 3% gain on Wednesday. As of Thursday’s analysis, prices continued climbing past $109,000.
If bullish momentum holds, the next target lies at the May 22 all-time high of $111,980. The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently sits at 59, showing upward momentum after rebounding from the neutral 50 level. This suggests strengthening buying pressure.
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The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) on the daily chart confirmed a bullish crossover last week. The histogram remains in positive territory with rising green bars, reinforcing the presence of an established uptrend.
However, a failure to maintain support at $108,355 could lead to a pullback toward the lower end of the consolidation range at $105,333. A decisive close below this level might signal short-term weakness and attract profit-taking.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
What is Bitcoin?
Bitcoin is the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization and functions as a decentralized digital currency. It operates without control from any central authority, eliminating the need for third parties in financial transactions.
What are Altcoins?
Altcoins refer to any cryptocurrency other than Bitcoin. While some consider Ethereum a special category due to its foundational role, others classify all non-Bitcoin cryptos as altcoins. Litecoin, for example, was the first major fork from Bitcoin and is often seen as an improved version.
What are Stablecoins?
Stablecoins are cryptocurrencies designed to maintain price stability by being pegged to reserve assets like the U.S. dollar. Their supply is managed through algorithms or collateralization, offering investors a low-volatility entry and exit point in crypto markets.
What is Bitcoin Dominance?
Bitcoin dominance measures BTC’s market cap as a percentage of the total crypto market cap. High dominance often precedes or occurs during bull markets, indicating strong investor preference for Bitcoin’s relative stability. A decline suggests capital rotation into altcoins in pursuit of higher returns.
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