This Analyst Predicted Bitcoin at $100K a Decade Ago — What’s His Take Now?

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Bitcoin has finally shattered the $100,000 milestone — a staggering achievement for an asset once dismissed as little more than a digital novelty. While skeptics continue to question its staying power, influential voices in finance are taking notice. Even Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently compared Bitcoin to digital gold during the DealBook Summit, acknowledging its growing relevance in the global financial landscape.

At the heart of this evolving narrative is Gil Luria, a seasoned analyst at D.A. Davidson and former Wedbush analyst who, back in December 2013, authored what many consider the first institutional sell-side report on Bitcoin. At a time when Bitcoin traded around $1,000, Luria boldly predicted it could surge 10 to 100 times in value — a forecast that now appears remarkably prescient.

Now that Bitcoin has reached six figures, what does Luria believe lies ahead?

The Long Road to $100K: Bitcoin’s Resilience and Value Proposition

In a recent research note, Luria emphasized Bitcoin’s enduring strength: “Since its inception on January 3, 2009, the Bitcoin network has operated securely and without major disruption. Today, it stands as a multi-trillion-dollar asset class that has outlasted countless innovative competitors.”

Unlike speculative digital fads, Bitcoin has maintained its dominance as the most valuable cryptocurrency by market capitalization — a testament to its network effect, decentralization, and growing institutional adoption.

But how do you value something with no cash flows or intrinsic yield?

Luria’s framework hinges on a bold yet plausible scenario: Bitcoin replacing all global fiat currencies. While he assigns only a 1% to 2% probability to this outcome, he argues it's sufficient to justify current price levels.

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Consider this: global money supply stands at approximately $100 trillion**. If Bitcoin were to fully replace fiat money, and with a fixed supply cap of 21 million coins, each Bitcoin would be worth roughly **$4.76 million. Even a tiny chance of such an outcome creates immense optionality value — especially when combined with other use cases.

“Ten years ago, I thought the probability of Bitcoin replacing fiat was 0%,” Luria admitted. “Five years ago, I raised it to 0.1%. Today, given its persistence, rising adoption, and expanding ecosystem, we believe this could become a self-fulfilling prophecy.”

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Bitcoin as Digital Gold: A Hedge Against Economic Uncertainty

Like Powell and other mainstream economists, Luria views Bitcoin primarily as a store of value — a scarce, durable, and portable asset that can serve as an alternative to gold.

“Bitcoin is a continuously appreciating, low-correlation asset,” Luria explained. “It functions as a hedge against weakening economic stability, much like gold has for centuries.”

Critics often point to Bitcoin’s high correlation with risk assets like equities — particularly during bull markets — citing instruments like the ProShares UltraPro QQQ (TQQQ) as evidence. However, Luria urges a broader perspective.

“We recommend widening the time horizon,” he said. “During periods of ultra-high liquidity and its aftermath, Bitcoin has shown lower correlation with traditional risk assets. While stock and bond prices are driven by employment, productivity, monetary policy, taxation, and globalization, Bitcoin’s fundamentals are primarily adoption-driven — making its price dynamics fundamentally different.”

This distinction is crucial for investors seeking portfolio diversification. In times of currency devaluation or systemic financial stress, Bitcoin may behave less like a tech stock and more like a crisis-resistant reserve asset.

Beyond Store of Value: Bitcoin as a Trading Phenomenon

While long-term holders focus on Bitcoin’s potential as digital gold, another powerful force drives demand: speculation and trading.

Luria identifies Bitcoin as an ideal asset for traders due to its:

“Humans bet on everything — stocks, sports, elections, card games,” Luria noted. “Bitcoin combines the most compelling traits of speculative assets. It has a long list of success stories — people who’ve built wealth through investment and trading. And let’s be honest: watching numbers go up is inherently addictive.”

This behavioral aspect cannot be underestimated. The psychological pull of price appreciation, amplified by social media and real-time data, fuels viral adoption cycles — especially among younger investors.

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Challenges Ahead: Competition from Stablecoins and Fiat

Despite its strengths, Bitcoin faces significant competition — not just from central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), but also from stablecoins, which are pegged to fiat currencies like the U.S. dollar.

Luria acknowledges that stablecoins could dominate as mediums of exchange and units of account, potentially reinforcing the dollar’s global dominance rather than displacing it.

“Bitcoin isn’t optimized for everyday transactions,” he said. “Stablecoins offer price stability and seamless integration into existing financial rails — making them better suited for commerce.”

This suggests a future where Bitcoin serves as digital gold, while stablecoins handle daily payments — a complementary rather than confrontational relationship.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

Q: Did Gil Luria really predict Bitcoin at $100K ten years ago?
A: Not exactly $100K specifically — in 2013, he predicted Bitcoin could reach 10 to 100 times its then-current price (~$1,000), implying a range of $10K to $100K. This made him one of the earliest institutional analysts to take Bitcoin seriously.

Q: Why does Bitcoin have value if it’s not backed by anything?
A: Similar to gold or collectibles, Bitcoin derives value from scarcity, durability, portability, and trust in its underlying network. Its fixed supply of 21 million coins and decentralized security model contribute to perceived long-term value.

Q: Is Bitcoin truly uncorrelated with stocks?
A: While correlations spike during market volatility or liquidity crunches, long-term data shows Bitcoin behaves differently from equities. Its primary driver is adoption and network growth, not corporate earnings or interest rates.

Q: Can Bitcoin really replace fiat currencies?
A: Full replacement remains unlikely in the near term, but even a small probability (1%-2%) creates significant option value. More realistically, Bitcoin may coexist as a parallel reserve asset.

Q: What risks does Bitcoin face going forward?
A: Regulatory scrutiny, environmental concerns (though declining with cleaner mining), technological competition (e.g., Ethereum), and macroeconomic shifts all pose challenges. However, its first-mover advantage and brand recognition remain strong.

Q: How can I invest in Bitcoin safely?
A: Use regulated exchanges with strong security practices, enable two-factor authentication, and consider cold storage for long-term holdings. Always do your own research before investing.

Final Thoughts: A New Era for Digital Assets

Gil Luria’s journey from cautious observer to cautious believer mirrors the broader evolution of institutional sentiment toward Bitcoin. Once seen as fringe or fraudulent, it’s now discussed in central banks and boardrooms worldwide.

Whether or not Bitcoin reaches $5 million per coin — or even replaces fiat money — may matter less than the fact that it has created a new paradigm for money, ownership, and financial sovereignty.

For investors, the key takeaway is this: even low-probability outcomes can justify significant valuations when the payoff is large enough. And in a world of rising debt, inflation fears, and digital transformation, Bitcoin continues to offer a compelling hedge and opportunity.

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