Bitcoin (BTC) has recently pulled back to the $105,000 level, marking a short-term correction after nearing its all-time high. Despite a nearly 2% dip in the past 24 hours and the start of the third quarter—a period historically associated with weaker performance—the broader cryptocurrency market sentiment remains resilient and optimistic.
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index stood at 63 out of 100 as of Wednesday, signaling "greed" and only slightly down from Tuesday’s 64. This stability in sentiment comes even as Bitcoin adjusted from nearly $108,000 to trade around $105,560, according to data from CoinMarketCap.
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Strong Sentiment Ahead of Historically Slower Q3
Market analysts continue to debate when Bitcoin might retest its record high of $111,970, set on May 22. Earlier this week, optimism peaked as prices hovered just below $109,000 before entering a brief consolidation phase.
Historical trends suggest that the third quarter—beginning July 1—has often been a slower period for both Bitcoin and Ethereum (ETH). Daan Crypto Trades, a well-known crypto trader, noted on Tuesday:
“From a historical standpoint, this quarter tends to be the weakest for BTC and ETH performance.”
However, “weak” does not necessarily mean “negative.” Data from CoinGlass shows that since 2013, Bitcoin has averaged a 5.47% gain during the third quarter. If this trend holds in 2025, Bitcoin could reach approximately $111,000 by September 30—just shy of its all-time high.
This seasonal slowdown is often attributed to reduced trading activity during summer months. “The summer period typically sees lower volume, fewer market participants, and tighter liquidity,” explained Daan. “That can lead to flatter price action, even in a bull market.”
Yet, the current market structure shows underlying strength. The fact that sentiment remains in the “greedy” range despite the pullback indicates confidence among investors that the broader uptrend is intact.
Q2 Performance Aligns with Historical Averages
Bitcoin concluded the second quarter—ending June 30—with a solid 31% increase, closing near $108,383. This performance slightly exceeds the historical average quarterly return of 27% since 2014. Notably, June also marked Bitcoin’s highest monthly closing price to date.
This consistent growth reflects sustained demand and accumulation, particularly among institutional and long-term holders. On-chain data continues to support this narrative, with metrics such as exchange outflows and rising wallet balances indicating strong holding patterns.
Moreover, Bitcoin’s dominance in the overall crypto market remains robust. According to TradingView, Bitcoin dominance currently sits at approximately 65.5%, up nearly 13% year-to-date. This increase signals that capital is still flowing into Bitcoin rather than being widely distributed across altcoins.
The CoinMarketCap Altcoin Season Index further reinforces this trend. Based on the performance of the top 100 altcoins relative to Bitcoin over the past 90 days, the index currently scores just 20 out of 100—firmly indicating a “Bitcoin season.”
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Bullish Indicators Show Caution Amid Neutral Signals
While overall sentiment remains positive, some technical indicators suggest a more cautious outlook. Julio Moreno, Research Head at CryptoQuant, reported on Wednesday that the platform’s Bitcoin Bull Market Score has dropped to 50—a neutral reading.
“The Bitcoin bull market score is now in the neutral zone. We need it to reach 60 or above for sustained upward momentum,” Moreno stated.
This neutral score doesn’t signal an imminent downturn but highlights a pause in bullish acceleration. It suggests that while the long-term trend may still be upward, short-term volatility and consolidation are likely.
Other metrics echo this balanced view:
- Network growth continues at a steady pace.
- Exchange reserves are declining, indicating accumulation rather than selling.
- Whale activity remains active, with large transfers increasing over the past week.
These factors collectively suggest that despite short-term price corrections, structural demand remains intact.
Core Keywords
- Bitcoin price analysis
- BTC market sentiment
- Cryptocurrency fear and greed index
- Bitcoin dominance
- Altcoin season index
- Q3 Bitcoin performance
- Bitcoin bull market indicators
- On-chain data trends
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: Why is Q3 historically weak for Bitcoin?
A: The third quarter often sees reduced trading volume and market activity due to summer holidays, especially in Western markets. Lower liquidity can lead to muted price movements even in strong bull cycles.
Q: What does a Crypto Fear & Greed Index of 63 mean?
A: A score of 63 falls into the “greed” category, indicating that investors are optimistic and buying aggressively. While not yet “extreme greed,” it suggests caution against short-term overvaluation.
Q: What is the Altcoin Season Index?
A: This index measures whether altcoins are outperforming Bitcoin over a 90-day window. A score below 25 suggests it’s a “Bitcoin season,” meaning BTC is leading gains over smaller cryptocurrencies.
Q: Does a neutral bull market score mean a crash is coming?
A: Not necessarily. A neutral score (like 50) indicates uncertainty or consolidation. It often precedes either a continuation of the bull run or a deeper correction—context from other indicators is essential.
Q: How does Bitcoin dominance affect other cryptocurrencies?
A: When Bitcoin dominance rises, capital tends to flow into BTC rather than altcoins. This can delay altcoin rallies until dominance stabilizes or declines.
Q: Can Bitcoin still reach new highs in 2025 despite Q3 trends?
A: Yes. While Q3 has historically been slower, it has rarely reversed bull markets. Many prior cycles saw new highs emerge in Q4 after summer consolidation.
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Conclusion
Bitcoin’s recent pullback to $105,560 reflects typical market behavior following a strong rally. Despite this correction and the onset of a seasonally softer quarter, market sentiment remains firmly in “greedy” territory—a testament to enduring confidence in Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory.
With solid Q2 gains, rising dominance, and supportive on-chain metrics, the foundation for future growth appears intact. While some indicators like the CryptoQuant Bull Market Score have turned neutral, they highlight caution rather than bearishness.
As always, investors should remain informed, monitor key metrics closely, and avoid emotional decision-making during periods of volatility. The path to new all-time highs may be gradual—but the underlying momentum suggests it’s still very much alive.
This article does not constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrency investments carry risk; readers should conduct their own research before making any investment decisions.