Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, has reversed his earlier bearish outlook on Bitcoin (BTC), now predicting a potential rally to $110,000 in the near term. This shift comes amid growing expectations of a pivotal change in U.S. monetary policy, as the Federal Reserve appears poised to transition from quantitative tightening (QT) to quantitative easing (QE). Hayes’ updated stance marks a notable turnaround from previous warnings that Bitcoin could drop to $70,000 before any major upside.
As of press time on March 24, 2025, Bitcoin was trading at approximately $88,460—an increase of over 4% in the past 24 hours—reflecting renewed market confidence and strengthening momentum.
Why Arthur Hayes Changed His Bitcoin Outlook
Hayes explained his bullish pivot in a social media post on March 24, attributing the shift primarily to anticipated changes in the Federal Reserve’s monetary approach. He emphasized that the central bank’s potential move toward QE for U.S. Treasuries could inject significant liquidity into financial markets, creating favorable conditions for risk assets like Bitcoin.
“The Fed is pivoting from QT to QE for treasuries,” Hayes stated, suggesting that this policy reversal mirrors past crisis-era interventions that historically fueled asset price surges.
While inflation and rising tariffs remain topics of discussion among economists, Hayes downplays their immediate impact, arguing that monetary policy remains the dominant force shaping Bitcoin’s trajectory. According to him, even if inflation shows temporary spikes, the Fed’s long-term response—likely dovish in tone—will outweigh short-term concerns.
Hayes clarified that while a move to $110,000 is now more probable than a fall to $76,500, he hasn’t ruled out a future pullback. Once the rally peaks, he warns of a possible correction back toward $70,000, particularly if markets become overheated due to excessive liquidity and speculative exuberance.
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The Role of Federal Reserve Policy in Bitcoin’s Price Movement
Quantitative tightening—where the Fed reduces its balance sheet by selling assets or allowing them to mature without reinvestment—has been a headwind for high-growth and speculative assets since 2022. However, recent signals suggest the central bank may soon reverse course.
Hayes believes the upcoming shift to quantitative easing will unlock new capital flows into digital assets. QE typically involves the Fed purchasing government bonds or other securities to stimulate the economy, effectively increasing the money supply. Historically, such periods have correlated strongly with rallies in both equities and cryptocurrencies.
The March 17 Consumer Price Index (CPI) report played a crucial role in altering market sentiment. It revealed easing inflationary pressures, prompting analysts at firms like 10X Research to revise their outlook from cautious to moderately bullish. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting that followed further reinforced expectations of future rate cuts or balance sheet expansion.
This evolving macro backdrop supports Hayes’ thesis: when central banks ease policy, investors seek higher returns in alternative assets. Bitcoin, with its fixed supply and growing institutional adoption, stands to benefit significantly.
Market Momentum Builds: Signs of a Durable Bottom
Hayes’ optimism aligns with broader market trends. Analysts at 10X Research recently noted early signs that Bitcoin may have already formed a bottom after briefly dipping below $95,000. Initially expecting a deeper correction, they revised their view following key macro developments.
One factor was a shift in former President Donald Trump’s trade rhetoric. His more flexible stance on reciprocal tariffs scheduled for April 2 helped ease fears of escalating global trade tensions. Markets interpreted this as a positive risk signal, boosting investor sentiment across asset classes.
Combined with stabilizing price action and improving technical indicators—such as rising volume on up-days and narrowing volatility ranges—these macro shifts suggest Bitcoin could be entering an accumulation phase. Though overall trading activity remains relatively subdued, the foundation appears to be forming for a sustained recovery.
At the time of writing:
- Bitcoin price: $88,460
- 24-hour change: +3.13%
- Market cap: $1.75 trillion
- 24-hour trading volume: $33.83 billion
- Total crypto market value: $2.87 trillion
- Bitcoin dominance: 60.72%
These figures underscore Bitcoin’s continued leadership in the digital asset space and its increasing role as a macro-sensitive store of value.
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What $110,000 Means for Bitcoin’s Long-Term Trajectory
Reclaiming the $110,000 level—which Bitcoin briefly touched earlier in 2025—would not only erase previous losses but also re-establish bullish momentum. Hayes suggests that surpassing this psychological and technical resistance could open the door to even higher targets.
“If Bitcoin breaks $110,000 convincingly,” Hayes noted, “we could see a path toward $250,000 in the medium term.”
Such a scenario would likely require sustained institutional inflows, possibly driven by spot Bitcoin ETFs, increased corporate treasury allocations, and further regulatory clarity. Additionally, the next halving cycle’s supply constraints may begin to exert stronger upward pressure on prices later in the year.
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Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: Why did Arthur Hayes change his Bitcoin forecast?
A: Hayes shifted from bearish to bullish due to expected changes in U.S. monetary policy, particularly the Federal Reserve’s likely pivot from quantitative tightening to quantitative easing, which could boost liquidity and support higher asset prices.
Q: Is a Bitcoin rally to $110,000 realistic?
A: Yes, many analysts see it as achievable given current momentum, easing inflation, and potential Fed rate cuts. Technical indicators and macro conditions support a near-term breakout toward this level.
Q: Could Bitcoin drop again after reaching $110,000?
A: Hayes warns that after a strong rally, a pullback to around $70,000 is possible if markets become overextended or if speculative excess leads to profit-taking.
Q: How does quantitative easing affect Bitcoin?
A: QE increases the money supply and often devalues fiat currencies, making hard-capped assets like Bitcoin more attractive as hedges against inflation and currency debasement.
Q: What data supports the idea of a market bottom?
A: Recent CPI data showing lower inflation, calming trade tensions, stable BTC price action above key support levels, and improving on-chain metrics all point to potential bottom formation.
Q: What’s next after $110,000?
A: If Bitcoin sustains gains above $110,000, Hayes believes the next major target could be $250,000, driven by macro liquidity and growing adoption.
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