The relationship between Ethereum (ETH) and Bitcoin (BTC) has long been a focal point for crypto investors seeking insights into market cycles, asset performance, and potential shifts in investor sentiment. While Ethereum remains the second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, its price trajectory in the current cycle has sparked debate—particularly when measured against Bitcoin.
Since the June 2022 market low, ETH has appreciated by approximately 240%, significantly trailing behind Bitcoin’s surge to new all-time highs by November 2024. Meanwhile, Ethereum’s price remains roughly 70% below its previous peak. This underperformance is clearly reflected in the ETH/BTC ratio, which has dipped to levels not seen in over 1,300 days.
But is this trend truly unprecedented—or does history suggest a familiar pattern may be unfolding?
ETH/BTC Performance Since the Cycle Low
One of the most telling metrics for assessing Ethereum’s relative strength is the ETH/BTC ratio following a market cycle bottom. Historical data reveals distinct patterns across previous cycles.
In the earlier cycles (2015–2018 and 2018–2021), Ethereum outperformed Bitcoin within the first year after the cycle low. The ratio peaked between 6 to 9 months post-bottom before entering a prolonged decline.
👉 Discover how historical trends could signal a major shift in the ETH/BTC ratio.
However, the 2019–2022 cycle broke this mold. Ethereum began outperforming Bitcoin much later—around 18 months after the low—and continued gaining momentum for over two years, ultimately reaching its peak well after the initial recovery phase.
In contrast, the current cycle presents a unique scenario. Ethereum initially outpaced Bitcoin in the months following the June 2022 low but has since reversed course. As of late 2024, the ETH/BTC ratio has fallen below its cycle-low level—a rare occurrence last seen briefly during the earliest market cycle and not sustained since.
Currently, the ratio stands at just 0.68 times its value at the June 2022 low, remaining in this depressed range for over three consecutive months. This prolonged underperformance raises questions about market sentiment and whether it signals exhaustion—or a potential setup for reversal.
ETH/BTC Decline From All-Time High: A Sign of Resilience?
When analyzing performance from the January 2022 all-time high, Ethereum’s relative decline appears less severe than in prior bear markets. The ETH/BTC ratio has dropped approximately 60% since that peak—far less dramatic than the 86% fall recorded in the previous cycle.
This suggests that Ethereum demonstrated greater resilience during the bear market, with its price movements more closely aligned to Bitcoin’s than in past downturns. While this stability may reflect growing maturity in Ethereum’s market dynamics, it also implies a weaker rebound.
Compare this to assets like Solana (SOL), which plummeted over 96% from its peak but has since surged 1,760%—a testament to the explosive potential of deeply oversold altcoins during recovery phases. Ethereum’s more moderate drawdown may have limited its upside momentum in the current bull phase.
Still, precedent offers hope. In past cycles, Ethereum began outperforming Bitcoin around three years after the prior all-time high—a timeline that aligns closely with the current market phase. On-chain analyst JR supports this outlook using the Actual-Value-to-Investor-Value (AVIV) indicator, which suggests the asset may be nearing a turning point.
Halving Cycles Reveal Striking Similarities
Among all analytical frameworks, the ETH/BTC ratio relative to Bitcoin halvings shows the most consistent historical pattern.
In each previous cycle, the ratio declined for roughly 3 to 6 months following the halving event before entering a sharp recovery phase that lasted another 3 to 6 months. Notably, steeper declines were often followed by more aggressive rallies.
The current post-halving period marks the longest downward phase on record—yet only marginally so. If history repeats, an inflection point may be near. A reversal would align with technical fractals observed during prior altseasons, including one highlighted by analyst Charting Guy in late 2024.
👉 See how halving-driven patterns are shaping the next phase of crypto growth.
Looking ahead, if ETH/BTC follows previous trends, it could climb between 100% and 500% from halving levels. Even a conservative 100% increase would push the ratio above ₿0.088—the previous cycle’s peak—potentially marking a new all-time high despite diminishing returns over successive cycles.
Why Resilience May Have Delayed Recovery
Ethereum’s status as one of the top underperformers since the 2022 low can be partly attributed to its resilience during the preceding bear market. Because it didn’t fall as sharply as other altcoins relative to Bitcoin, it lacked the deep oversold conditions that often fuel explosive rebounds.
In essence, a shallower decline may have sapped upward momentum. This dynamic helps explain both the subdued rally and persistently negative sentiment surrounding Ethereum despite its fundamental strengths—such as ongoing network upgrades, deflationary fee mechanisms, and dominant DeFi ecosystem share.
However, this also means that Ethereum could be better positioned for sustained performance rather than speculative spikes. Its underlying adoption metrics remain strong, with consistent growth in on-chain activity, protocol revenue, and staking participation.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: What does the ETH/BTC ratio indicate?
A: The ETH/BTC ratio measures how much Ethereum is worth in terms of Bitcoin. It helps investors assess relative strength between the two leading cryptocurrencies and identify potential shifts in market leadership.
Q: Why is Ethereum underperforming Bitcoin in this cycle?
A: Several factors contribute: Ethereum’s relatively shallow bear market decline limited its rebound potential; increased competition from newer blockchains; and slower-than-expected post-upgrade price catalysts despite technical improvements.
Q: Can ETH/BTC reach a new all-time high?
A: Yes—historical patterns following Bitcoin halvings suggest a strong rally is possible. Even a 100% increase from current levels would surpass previous highs, especially if broader altseason momentum builds.
Q: How long do ETH/BTC rallies typically last after a halving?
A: Post-halving rallies in the ETH/BTC ratio have historically lasted between 3 to 6 months, often beginning 6 to 12 months after the halving event.
Q: Is a low ETH/BTC ratio bullish or bearish?
A: A low ratio can be bullish if it reflects capitulation and alignment with long-term cycles. Extended periods below cycle lows often precede significant outperformance phases.
Q: What tools help predict ETH/BTC movements?
A: Analysts use on-chain metrics like AVIV, exchange flow data, and historical correlation models based on halving cycles and macroeconomic trends to forecast potential turning points.
👉 Explore real-time data and tools that can help you track ETH/BTC trends with precision.
While Ethereum’s current performance may seem disappointing compared to past cycles, deeper analysis reveals that many of these patterns have played out before. Market structure, investor behavior, and halving-driven cycles continue to shape outcomes in predictable ways.
The current ETH/BTC ratio—though at multi-year lows—may not signal weakness, but rather accumulation ahead of a potential breakout. As history shows, patience during periods of underperformance can precede some of the most rewarding phases in crypto markets.