Bitcoin Rises 33% Since 2024 Halving Amid Institutional Market Acceleration

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Bitcoin (BTC) has surged over 33% since the April 2024 halving event, defying global economic uncertainties and signaling a potential shift in the traditional four-year market cycle. With growing institutional adoption and the rise of Bitcoin ETFs, many analysts believe the next phase of Bitcoin’s price evolution is unfolding faster than ever before.

This milestone comes as investors mark one year since the last halving, which reduced block rewards from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC per block—effectively cutting the rate of new supply in half. Historically, such events have preceded major bull runs due to increased scarcity. But this time, something feels different: the cycle appears to be accelerating.

The Role of Institutional Adoption in Cycle Compression

One of the most significant shifts in the 2024–2025 Bitcoin market is the increasing influence of institutional players. Unlike previous cycles driven largely by retail enthusiasm, today's rally is being fueled by structured financial products and corporate balance sheet strategies.

Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), particularly those approved in early 2024, have become a major conduit for institutional capital. These ETFs allow traditional investors to gain exposure to Bitcoin without holding it directly, reducing barriers to entry and increasing market liquidity.

👉 Discover how institutional inflows are reshaping Bitcoin’s market dynamics

Vugar Usi Zade, Chief Operating Officer at Bitget, notes that "institutional adoption through Bitcoin ETFs is not only increasing demand but also compressing the typical four-year cycle." He explains: "With consistent buying pressure and reduced supply from the halving, we could see new all-time highs sooner than expected—possibly within 18 to 24 months post-halving."

This timeline would represent a dramatic shortening of prior cycles:

Such data suggests a clear trend: Bitcoin’s market cycles are accelerating, and institutions are playing a central role.

Market Fundamentals: Scarcity Meets Demand

At its core, Bitcoin’s value proposition lies in its programmed scarcity. The halving mechanism ensures that only 21 million bitcoins will ever exist, with new supply entering circulation at a predictable and diminishing rate.

The 2024 halving cut annual inflation from approximately 1.8% to under 0.9%, placing Bitcoin’s monetary policy firmly in deflationary territory when accounting for lost coins. This growing scarcity, combined with rising demand from ETFs and corporate treasuries, creates a powerful supply-demand imbalance.

Enmanuel Cardozo, market analyst at tokenization platform Brickken, observes:

“While macroeconomic uncertainty—especially around global trade tensions—keeps some investors cautious, the structural shift toward digital asset adoption is undeniable. Institutional inflows are providing sustained buying pressure that wasn’t present in earlier cycles.”

Cardozo projects that the current cycle could bottom out in Q3 2025, with a potential peak around mid-2026—though he acknowledges timing may shift depending on broader monetary conditions.

Macroeconomic Influences: The Fed Factor

Despite Bitcoin’s decentralized nature, its price remains sensitive to macroeconomic forces—particularly U.S. monetary policy.

Analysts closely watch the Federal Reserve’s stance on interest rates. A rate cut in May or June 2025 could inject significant liquidity into financial markets, benefiting risk assets like Bitcoin.

Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets and often lead to a weaker U.S. dollar—both factors historically supportive of higher Bitcoin prices.

“If the Fed begins easing,” Cardozo adds, “we could see even stronger momentum in BTC as capital rotates into alternative stores of value.”

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Is This a New Era for Bitcoin Cycles?

The convergence of institutional investment, ETF-driven demand, and programmed scarcity points to a fundamental transformation in how Bitcoin cycles operate.

Where past rallies were characterized by speculative retail waves and long accumulation phases, today’s environment features:

These changes suggest that waiting for multi-year consolidation periods may no longer be necessary. Instead, Bitcoin could enter shorter, more intense cycles as adoption grows and market infrastructure matures.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

Q: What is the Bitcoin halving?
A: The Bitcoin halving is a pre-programmed event that occurs roughly every four years, reducing the block reward miners receive by 50%. This cuts the rate of new Bitcoin creation in half, increasing scarcity over time.

Q: How does the halving affect Bitcoin’s price?
A: Historically, halvings have preceded major price increases due to reduced supply and growing demand. However, external factors like regulation, macroeconomics, and investor sentiment also play critical roles.

Q: Why is the 2024 cycle different from previous ones?
A: The key difference is institutional participation. With approved ETFs and corporate treasury investments, large-scale capital is now entering the market consistently—accelerating traditional cycle timelines.

Q: When did Bitcoin hit its post-2024-halving high?
A: On January 20, 2025, Bitcoin reached over $109,000—just 273 days after the halving—marking a significant acceleration compared to prior cycles.

Q: Could another BTC ETF approval further boost prices?
A: While most major markets have already approved spot Bitcoin ETFs, further product innovation (like leveraged or options-based ETFs) could attract additional institutional interest and increase trading volume.

Q: What risks remain for Bitcoin in 2025?
A: Key risks include unexpected regulatory actions, prolonged high interest rates, geopolitical instability, and potential security breaches in custodial systems.

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Conclusion

Bitcoin’s 33% gain since the 2024 halving reflects more than just technical scarcity—it signals a maturing asset class being reshaped by institutional forces. With ETFs driving consistent demand and global macro conditions poised to shift, the traditional four-year cycle may be evolving into something faster, stronger, and more resilient.

As market structure improves and adoption deepens, investors should prepare not just for volatility—but for velocity.

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