The cryptocurrency landscape is entering a pivotal phase, and according to Ryan Selkis, founder and CEO of Messari, 2023 is shaping up to be a transformative year—particularly in the second half. With macroeconomic shifts, technological breakthroughs, and regulatory battles converging, the stage is set for accelerated adoption and structural change across the digital asset ecosystem.
Selkis recently shared a comprehensive outlook on the state of crypto, emphasizing that Bitcoin and Ethereum remain central, while broader narratives around macro trends, geopolitics, and artificial intelligence are amplifying crypto’s long-term relevance.
The Macro Foundation: Bitcoin and Ethereum Lead the Charge
At the core of today’s market dynamics lies a simple truth: it's all about macro, not niche crypto sub-sectors like DeFi, Layer 2s, or NFTs. While these innovations matter, they thrive only when the foundational assets—Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH)—are strong.
Bitcoin continues to dominate both in market share and investor sentiment. Its market dominance is near multi-year highs, historically a leading indicator of broader market recovery. This isn’t surprising for seasoned participants, but it underscores a key principle: BTC leads the cycle.
👉 Discover how Bitcoin’s macro role is reshaping global finance.
Meanwhile, Ethereum has solidified its status as a deflationary, hard-money asset following the successful Merge and Shapella upgrade. These milestones transformed ETH from a proof-of-work asset into a staking-based, yield-generating network with predictable supply mechanics.
A critical metric supporting this bullish view is the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio. Currently, ETH’s MVRV sits slightly above BTC’s—a rare occurrence that suggests Ethereum may be undervalued relative to its realized cost basis.
Liquidity, ETFs, and Institutional Credibility
Liquidity remains a defining factor in asset performance. According to data from Kaiko, Bitcoin dominates perpetual futures markets, with its net preference ratio soaring from 3:2 to an astonishing 10:1. This reflects growing institutional confidence and structural demand.
While much attention has been focused on spot Bitcoin ETF approvals, Selkis argues that the real impact isn’t the ETF itself—but what it represents: institutional validation. The entry of BlackRock into the BTC ETF race signals a shift in perception. Larry Fink calling Bitcoin “digital gold” carries more weight than any single fund launch.
This credibility shift allows retail investors to "front-run" institutional capital. The demand surge won’t come solely from ETF inflows—it will stem from a structural change in trust, driven by traditional finance embracing crypto.
Geopolitical and Technological Shifts Fuel Adoption
Crypto’s importance extends beyond finance—it's becoming integral to geopolitical strategy and technological evolution.
1. Macroeconomic Pressures
Central banks face mounting pressure. If the Federal Reserve doesn’t pivot toward easing monetary policy, commercial real estate debt and banking solvency could come under severe strain. In this environment, quantitative easing—or “printing money”—is likely to return, reinforcing Bitcoin’s value proposition as a hedge against monetary debasement.
2. Geopolitical Diversification
Countries outside the Western bloc—what Selkis calls “non-aligned nations”—are increasingly turning to gold and cryptocurrencies to diversify their reserves. Sanctions overreach has eroded trust in dollar-based systems, making external, neutral forms of value like BTC more attractive.
3. Artificial Intelligence and Machine Economies
In an age of AI-driven automation, crypto is poised to become the default machine-to-machine payment rail. With AI agents requiring secure, programmable, and globally accessible transaction layers, blockchain technology offers mathematically guaranteed scarcity and reliability.
👉 See how AI and crypto are converging to power the next digital economy.
As Selkis puts it: “If crypto grows alongside AI… watch out.”
Key People to Watch in H2 2023
The current market cycle is defined by regulatory battles and political engagement, which explains why many of the most influential figures are lawyers, policymakers, or activists.
- Paul Grewal (Coinbase) – Leading Coinbase’s legal fight against U.S. regulators. His success could determine whether crypto remains accessible in America through 2024.
- Dante Disparte (Circle) – Central to advancing bipartisan stablecoin legislation. His influence will shape the regulatory future of digital dollars.
- American Blockchain PAC Leaders – A political action committee aiming to secure pro-crypto victories in swing states during the 2024 elections. Needs ~$50M to make an impact.
- Stuart Alderoty (Ripple) – Lead attorney in Ripple’s case against the SEC. A favorable ruling could redefine how non-BTC tokens are treated legally.
- Winklevoss Twins & Barry Silbert – Involved in high-profile legal disputes over Genesis, Gemini Earn, and DCG. Their outcomes hinge on GBTC’s potential ETF conversion.
- Rishi Sunak (UK Prime Minister) – A strong advocate for crypto regulation and innovation. Previously led UK efforts on CBDCs and crypto law reform.
- Rune Christensen (MakerDAO) – Architect of Maker’s “Endgame” plan to decentralize governance and reduce reliance on centralized collateral.
- Antonio Juliano (dYdX) – Steering dYdX’s transition from Ethereum Rollup to a Cosmos-based appchain—a bold bet on sovereignty and scalability.
- CZ (Binance) – Amid DOJ scrutiny and executive departures, CZ’s ability to navigate regulatory challenges will define Binance’s future.
- Larry Fink (BlackRock) – His endorsement of Bitcoin marks a watershed moment for institutional adoption.
9 Products Shaping the Future of Web3
Beyond people and policy, technological innovation continues at pace.
- Firedancer (Jump Crypto) – A new Solana validator client designed for extreme scalability, low latency, and enhanced network resilience.
- Sovereign SDK – A chain-agnostic framework for building zk-rollups with seamless interoperability between different rollup types.
- Base (Coinbase) – An OP Stack-based L2 with massive user potential. With 110 million users at its back, Base could bring mainstream users onchain.
- Uniswap v4 Hooks – Customizable smart contracts enabling deeper protocol integrations and transforming Uniswap into a full liquidity platform.
- ETH Staking Ecosystem – With staking rates approaching 50%, this space presents a $30–50B revenue opportunity. Watch Eigenlayer, Alluvial, and Lybra.
- Decentralized Databases (Ceramic + Space & Time) – Enabling verifiable data ownership and composable data layers for Web3 apps.
- Lens Protocol & Farcaster – Leading decentralized social platforms offering composable profiles and anti-siloed social graphs.
- Safe Wallet – Set to benefit from ERC-4337 (account abstraction), enhancing usability and security for smart contract wallets.
- XMTP – Building a universal messaging layer for Web3, enabling encrypted communication between blockchain addresses.
Frequently Asked Questions
Q: Why is Bitcoin more important than other crypto sectors right now?
A: Because BTC acts as a macro proxy for the entire market. When confidence returns to Bitcoin, it lifts all crypto assets—especially during early recovery phases.
Q: Will a Bitcoin ETF really make a difference?
A: Not because of the product itself—but because of who’s backing it. BlackRock’s involvement brings institutional legitimacy that accelerates mainstream acceptance.
Q: Is Ethereum truly deflationary now?
A: Yes. Post-Merge and Shapella, ETH issuance dropped significantly. With staking and network activity, ETH has entered periods of net deflation—making it scarcer over time.
Q: How does AI relate to cryptocurrency?
A: AI systems need autonomous payment mechanisms. Crypto provides a trustless, programmable way for machines to transact—making it ideal for future AI economies.
Q: Who has the most influence on U.S. crypto policy?
A: Currently, figures like Paul Grewal (Coinbase), Dante Disparte (Circle), and legal teams in cases like Ripple vs SEC are shaping the regulatory landscape more than politicians.
Q: Can decentralized social media really compete with Twitter or Facebook?
A: Not yet at scale—but with platforms like Lens and Farcaster enabling portable identities and composable features, they offer a viable alternative as users seek control over their data.
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