Dogecoin’s quiet but steady spring rally has reignited one of the most persistent questions in the retail crypto space: Can the world’s most famous meme coin realistically reach $1 in this market cycle? While skeptics remain cautious, a growing number of technical analysts are pointing to a compelling confluence of momentum, macroeconomic shifts, and long-term chart patterns that suggest the answer might be yes.
Among the latest voices is independent market strategist Kevin—widely known in online circles as Kev Capital TA—who recently delivered a 13-minute technical analysis update declaring that Dogecoin (DOGE) isn’t just on track to retest previous highs, but could plausibly break through the psychological $1 barrier before this bull run concludes.
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The Case for $1: A Technical Foundation
At the core of Kevin’s argument is a clear, data-driven framework rooted in long-term technical analysis. “Can Dogecoin hit $1 this cycle? The answer is yes, it absolutely can,” he stated confidently at the beginning of his video. But rather than relying on hype or sentiment, he anchors his outlook in measurable indicators and historical precedent.
Dogecoin is now entering what analysts describe as its third major market cycle. Historically, each cycle has seen DOGE climb toward the 1.618 Fibonacci extension on the monthly chart—a level widely respected in technical trading for marking potential breakout zones. Currently, that extension sits near **$3.80**, far above $1.
“Citing $3.80 isn’t a price prediction,” Kevin clarified. “It’s a way to frame the upside potential based on prior market behavior.”
Even if Dogecoin only reaches $1, that would represent a significant milestone—especially given its current price hovering around **$0.25**. A fourfold increase may sound ambitious, but in the context of past crypto bull markets, such moves are not only possible—they’re common among high-beta altcoins.
Momentum Is Just Warming Up
One of the most persuasive elements in Kevin’s analysis is the state of Dogecoin’s momentum indicators—particularly the monthly Relative Strength Index (RSI). Since bottoming out in June 2022 after the Luna crash, DOGE has maintained an ascending trend on this key gauge.
In previous cycles, the monthly RSI climbed to at least 89.4 during peak momentum phases. Today, it sits around 75, suggesting there’s still substantial upward pressure yet to unfold. “Look how much room we have to go,” Kevin emphasized.
Additionally, the monthly Stochastic Oscillator—a powerful tool for identifying turning points—has recently formed a fresh bullish crossover. In Kevin’s view, this signals that Dogecoin is not peaking, but rather entering a new phase of acceleration.
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Macro Tailwinds: The Liquidity Factor
Beyond charts and indicators, Kevin ties Dogecoin’s potential to broader macroeconomic forces now aligning in favor of risk assets—especially high-beta cryptocurrencies like DOGE.
He highlights three key developments:
- Anticipated U.S. interest rate cuts in late 2025 and beyond
- A slowdown in quantitative tightening (QT)
- A measurable rise in global liquidity
These conditions historically fuel speculative appetite and drive capital into alternative investments—including altcoins. But perhaps more importantly, Kevin notes a structural shift already underway: a decline in Bitcoin dominance (BTC.D).
On April 28, his analysis desk flagged a breakdown in Bitcoin dominance at 65.45%, a level they interpret as a precursor to “alt-season”—a period when capital rotates out of Bitcoin and into faster-moving altcoins.
“Altcoins are oscillators to Bitcoin,” Kevin explained. “When monetary policy becomes more accommodative, that liquidity flows into the broader crypto market.”
With Bitcoin likely stabilizing after its post-halving consolidation, the stage could be set for Dogecoin and other meme-driven assets to take center stage.
Key Price Targets and Accumulation Patterns
Kevin also spotlighted a critical chart pattern forming over recent months: a “perfect inverse head-and-shoulders” accumulation structure. This type of formation typically signals a reversal from downtrend to uptrend after a prolonged consolidation.
He revealed that he began accumulating DOGE at an average entry point of $0.15, a position now up approximately 65–70%. From here, he sees clear milestones ahead:
- $0.48: Intermediate resistance and psychological threshold
- $0.74: Previous all-time high, last seen during the 2021 mania
- $1.00: The next major psychological and technical barrier
Reaching $1 would require sustained buying pressure and continued weakening of Bitcoin’s dominance. But if macro liquidity trends hold—and if investor sentiment remains constructive—the target is within reach by year-end.
Addressing the Skeptics
Of course, not everyone shares this optimism. Critics often point to Dogecoin’s 2021 surge—fueled largely by social media hype and Elon Musk’s infamous Saturday Night Live appearance—as a one-time event unlikely to repeat.
Kevin acknowledges the skepticism but counters with a powerful data point: the Pi-Cycle Top Model, a well-regarded long-term indicator used to predict market peaks in Bitcoin and, by extension, altcoins.
“The same Pi-cycle moving-average pair that successfully called prior tops is nowhere near crossing,” Kevin noted.
This implies that while markets are rising, they’re far from overheated. In fact, he calculates that the shorter-term moving average won’t even begin trending upward until DOGE hits $0.40–$0.41, leaving a 145% buffer between current prices and $1—even under accelerating conditions.
A Data-Driven Outlook, Not Hype
Perhaps most refreshingly, Kevin distances himself from the hyperbolic claims often seen on social media. “We’re not going to turn this into a Dogecoin to $35 video,” he told viewers. “This is a video based on facts.”
He emphasizes that while $1 is an ambitious target, it’s grounded in technical structure, momentum trends, and macro fundamentals—not wishful thinking. For investors, the takeaway is clear: treat DOGE not as a meme-driven lottery ticket, but as a high-beta asset riding real market dynamics.
👉 Learn how to separate data-driven crypto insights from empty hype.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: What is the main technical indicator supporting Dogecoin’s rise to $1?
A: The 1.618 Fibonacci extension on the monthly chart—historically aligned with major cycle highs—currently sits near $3.80, indicating substantial upside potential even if $1 is only an intermediate milestone.
Q: How does macroeconomic policy affect Dogecoin’s price?
A: Easing monetary policy, expected U.S. rate cuts, and rising global liquidity tend to boost risk appetite, driving capital into high-beta assets like Dogecoin during periods of declining Bitcoin dominance.
Q: Is Dogecoin’s 2025 rally different from its 2021 spike?
A: Yes. While 2021 was driven largely by social media hype, the current move shows stronger technical foundations, including sustained momentum on monthly indicators and alignment with long-term cycle models.
Q: What chart pattern suggests Dogecoin is still in accumulation phase?
A: A “perfect inverse head-and-shoulders” pattern on the monthly chart indicates institutional or strategic accumulation, often preceding major breakout moves.
Q: How much higher could Dogecoin go beyond $1?
A: While $1 is a key psychological target, the 1.618 Fibonacci extension near $3.80 represents a longer-term structural objective based on historical cycle behavior—though this is not a guaranteed price prediction.
Q: What would invalidate the bullish case for Dogecoin?
A: A failure to break above $0.74, renewed strength in Bitcoin dominance, or tighter-than-expected monetary policy could delay or derail the path toward $1.
With momentum building and macro conditions turning favorable, Dogecoin’s journey to $1 may no longer be a meme—but a measurable market possibility. Whether it gets there depends on how well it continues to ride the wave of liquidity, technical strength, and shifting investor focus toward high-growth altcoins.