Bitcoin (BTC) regained momentum on Tuesday, climbing back above the $80,000 mark after a nearly 3% drop the previous day. The rebound follows a sharp intraday low of $76,606 during Asian trading hours, signaling short-term stabilization despite ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty. With critical U.S. inflation data—Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI)—scheduled for release in the coming days, volatility across risk assets like Bitcoin is expected to intensify.
Market sentiment remains cautious amid weakening institutional demand and large-scale BTC movements from legacy addresses, including recent transfers by the defunct Mt. Gox exchange. At the same time, technical indicators suggest potential for recovery, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) showing signs of emerging from oversold territory.
Bitcoin Bounces After Testing Key Support at $76,606
After plunging to a session low of $76,606 during Tuesday’s Asian trading, Bitcoin staged a recovery, reclaiming the $80,000 level as early European markets opened. This rebound came on the heels of Monday’s 8.8% decline, which pushed BTC below its 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $85,754—a bearish signal that triggered widespread liquidations across leveraged positions.
According to Coinglass data, total liquidations in the past 24 hours reached $955.71 million**, with long positions absorbing the brunt of losses. The largest single liquidation occurred on Binance’s BTC/USDT pair, amounting to $5.26 million. In total, over $318 million in long BTC positions** were wiped out during the downturn.
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Agne Linge, Growth Lead at WeFi, commented on the current market dynamics in an exclusive interview with FXStreet:
“Despite notable developments such as national Bitcoin reserve announcements, selling pressure has not eased. The market continues to reflect risk-off behavior, particularly affecting leveraged longs.”
Linge emphasized that geopolitical tensions—including ongoing trade disputes between the U.S., China, Mexico, and Canada—are contributing to investor caution. Escalating tariffs could fuel inflationary pressures, further complicating the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy outlook and indirectly impacting crypto valuations.
Upcoming U.S. Macroeconomic Data May Trigger Volatility
The U.S. economic calendar this week is packed with high-impact events that could sway Bitcoin’s trajectory. The CPI report due Wednesday and PPI data on Thursday will offer fresh clues about inflation trends and the Fed’s potential rate-cut timeline.
Current macro conditions present a mixed picture:
- February saw 151,000 new jobs added, indicating labor market resilience.
- Unemployment rose to 4.1%, partly due to government sector layoffs.
- Wage growth remains strong, but rising labor costs may sustain inflationary pressures.
Bitfinex noted in its Monday report that “stable employment gains are being offset by trade disruptions and cautious business investment,” creating an ambiguous environment for risk assets.
Eren Sengezer, Chief Analyst at FXStreet, observed:
“Concerns over a U.S. economic slowdown sparked equity sell-offs early this week. Traders are now closely watching CPI expectations and equity market reactions.”
If inflation readings come in hotter than expected, Bitcoin could face renewed downward pressure as higher-for-longer interest rate expectations dampen risk appetite. Conversely, a softer CPI print might ignite a relief rally across digital assets.
Institutional Demand for Bitcoin Weakens Amid ETF Outflows
Institutional interest in Bitcoin appears to be cooling. According to Coinglass, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $278.4 million in outflows on Monday**, following a weekly net outflow of **$739.2 million. Prolonged outflows could undermine price support and extend the current correction phase.
Adding to supply-side concerns, Mt. Gox transferred 11,833.6 BTC—worth over $932 million**—on Tuesday. Of this, **11,501.58 BTC ($905 million) was sent to a new wallet, while 332 BTC ($26.1 million) moved to a hot wallet, likely preparing for distribution or sale. Such large movements often precede selling pressure, potentially triggering bearish sentiment among traders anticipating increased market supply.
However, positive developments offer counterbalance:
- BBVA, a major Spanish bank, received regulatory approval to offer Bitcoin and Ethereum trading services.
- MicroStrategy raised $2.1 billion through preferred stock offerings to fund future BTC acquisitions.
These signals suggest that while short-term institutional flows are negative, long-term adoption by traditional financial players continues to build.
Bitcoin Price Outlook: RSI Shows Early Signs of Recovery
Technically, Bitcoin’s daily chart reflects a market stabilizing after a sharp correction. The RSI dipped to 30 on Monday—entering oversold territory—but has since rebounded to 36, with upward momentum suggesting weakening bearish control. A move above 50 would confirm a shift toward bullish momentum.
Key levels to watch:
- Support: $73,072 (next major downside target if $78,258 breaks)
- Resistance: $85,000 (previous EMA and psychological barrier)
A sustained close above $80,000 could pave the way for a retest of $85,000. Conversely, failure to hold $78,258 may open the door to deeper corrections.
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Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
Q: Why did Bitcoin drop below $77,000 recently?
A: The decline was driven by a combination of ETF outflows, profit-taking after prior gains, and macroeconomic uncertainty ahead of key U.S. inflation data releases.
Q: How do CPI and PPI data affect Bitcoin prices?
A: Stronger-than-expected inflation data can delay Fed rate cuts, strengthening the U.S. dollar and reducing risk appetite—negatively impacting Bitcoin. Weaker data may boost crypto markets due to expectations of looser monetary policy.
Q: What does Mt. Gox’s Bitcoin transfer mean for the market?
A: Large transfers often precede sales or creditor repayments, increasing potential selling pressure. However, actual market impact depends on how quickly these coins enter circulation.
Q: Is Bitcoin still in a bull market?
A: Despite short-term corrections, structural drivers like institutional adoption and macro hedge demand suggest the broader bull trend remains intact if key support levels hold.
Q: Can Bitcoin rebound to $85,000 soon?
A: Yes—if BTC sustains above $80,000 and upcoming CPI data supports rate cut expectations, a move toward $85,000 becomes increasingly likely.
Q: How do ETF outflows impact Bitcoin’s price?
A: Persistent outflows indicate weakening institutional demand, which can erode price support and trigger further declines unless offset by retail buying or new inflows.
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As markets await pivotal inflation data, Bitcoin stands at a crossroads—balancing between short-term headwinds and long-term structural growth. Traders should remain vigilant, monitor key technical levels, and prepare for heightened volatility in the days ahead.