The XRP market is experiencing a pivotal moment as whale sell-offs and on-chain distribution intensify, casting short-term uncertainty over its price trajectory. Despite strong profit-taking signals from long-term holders, investor sentiment remains buoyant, fueled by growing optimism around a potential spot XRP ETF approval. With technical indicators pointing to an imminent breakout, the stage is set for a decisive move—either upward or downward. This article explores the current dynamics shaping XRP’s market behavior, analyzes key on-chain data, and evaluates expert predictions for its next price phase.
Rising Whale Activity and On-Chain Distribution
Recent on-chain data reveals a notable increase in XRP distribution, primarily driven by whale activity. According to Whale Alert, over 26.6 million XRP—valued at approximately $58 million—was transferred from an unidentified wallet linked to a Ripple-affiliated whale to Coinbase. This movement has sparked speculation about profit realization, especially as Coinbase is often used as an on-ramp for selling into fiat.
Despite this large transfer, XRP has maintained relative price stability, trading around $2.16 at the time of writing. This resilience suggests that while some early investors are cashing in, broader market demand continues to absorb the selling pressure.
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Glassnode data further supports the notion of a distribution phase. XRP has sustained trading above $2, representing more than a threefold increase from its pre-rally base in late 2024. As a result, early adopters and long-term holders are now sitting on gains exceeding 300%.
In early June 2025, the pace of profit-taking accelerated, with realized gains averaging $68.8 million per day over a 7-day simple moving average (SMA). This surge in realized profit indicates a shift from accumulation to distribution—a typical market cycle phase following strong rallies.
XRP is trading above $2, more than 3x higher than its base price before the sharp rally in November 2024.
Investors who accumulated earlier are sitting on over 300% gains.
In early June, they began realizing profits at a pace of $68.8M per day (7D-SMA), signaling a wave of distribution.
Such behavior is common in mature bull market phases, where early entrants lock in profits while new investors enter the market. The key question now is whether retail and institutional demand can offset this outflow and propel XRP toward new highs.
Market Sentiment: ETF Hopes Fuel Optimism
Despite increased selling pressure, market sentiment around XRP remains overwhelmingly positive. A major driver of this optimism is the anticipated approval of a spot XRP ETF. With the conclusion of the long-standing Ripple vs. SEC lawsuit drawing near, regulatory clarity appears within reach.
Polymarket data indicates a greater than 90% probability that a spot XRP ETF will be approved by the end of 2025. This high confidence level reflects growing expectations that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) may soon issue a favorable decision, especially given Ripple’s partial legal victory and the evolving regulatory landscape for digital assets.
ETF approval would mark a transformative milestone for XRP, opening the door to institutional investment and significantly enhancing liquidity and market credibility. Historically, spot ETF approvals have triggered strong price rallies in other cryptocurrencies—Bitcoin being a prime example—further fueling bullish expectations.
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Technical Outlook: A Breakout Looms
Technical analysis suggests that XRP is approaching a critical juncture. Renowned crypto analyst Dark Defender has highlighted that multiple indicators are converging, signaling an imminent breakout.
XRP’s price is currently positioned at the intersection of key trend lines, a Fibonacci retracement level, and what Dark Defender refers to as the “Cup Surface” pattern—a variation of the classic cup-and-handle formation often associated with bullish continuations. Additionally, the Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) are tightening, indicating reduced volatility and building tension ahead of a potential explosive move.
Dark Defender has outlined key levels to watch:
- Short-term targets: $2.22 and $3.61
- Support level: $2.0706
#XRP is about to remove the Tension soon. The price is close to the conjunction of the trend lines, the Fibonacci level, and the Cup Surface.
Exponential Moving Averages are tight, and the trend line is squeezed.
Targets: $2.22, $3.61 short term.
Supports: $2.0706
The Cup is ‘Hot!’ Get ready for the decision.
These targets imply a potential upside of over 65% from current levels if momentum carries through. However, failure to hold above $2.07 could trigger a deeper correction toward $2.00—a key psychological and technical support zone.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Q: Why are whales selling XRP now?
A: Many early XRP investors are realizing profits after holding through years of legal uncertainty and price stagnation. With XRP trading above $2—more than triple its pre-rally level—the current price presents an attractive exit point for long-term holders.
Q: Does whale selling mean XRP will crash?
A: Not necessarily. While large sell-offs can create short-term downward pressure, they don’t always lead to sustained declines. Market resilience depends on whether buying demand from new investors or institutions can absorb the supply.
Q: How likely is a spot XRP ETF approval?
A: According to Polymarket data, the probability exceeds 90% by year-end 2025. This high likelihood is based on Ripple’s legal progress and increasing regulatory clarity in the U.S. crypto space.
Q: What happens if XRP breaks below $2.07?
A: A drop below $2.07 could trigger further selling, potentially testing the $2.00 support level. However, strong demand near this zone could stabilize prices and set up a rebound.
Q: What are the next major price targets for XRP?
A: Analysts project short-term targets at $2.22 and $3.61 if bullish momentum prevails. These levels align with technical patterns and reflect strong resistance zones that could act as springboards for further gains.
Q: How does on-chain data help predict XRP’s price?
A: On-chain metrics like realized profit, exchange inflows, and whale movements provide insight into investor behavior. Sustained profit-taking often precedes corrections, while accumulation patterns suggest potential upside.
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Conclusion
XRP stands at a crossroads shaped by conflicting forces: rising distribution from whales and early investors versus strong market optimism driven by ETF expectations and technical breakout signals. While short-term volatility is likely, the long-term outlook remains constructive if regulatory clarity materializes and institutional interest grows.
Traders and investors should closely monitor key support and resistance levels, on-chain activity, and official developments regarding ETF filings. With multiple catalysts on the horizon, XRP’s next major move could unfold sooner than expected—making this one of the most watched altcoins of 2025.
Regardless of immediate price action, understanding the interplay between whale behavior, technical patterns, and regulatory news will be essential for navigating XRP’s evolving market landscape.