Cardano (ADA) is once again at a critical juncture, facing a pivotal test at a long-standing support level. After briefly rallying on positive market sentiment, the price has since reversed, erasing all gains from its recent surge. With technical indicators leaning bearish and momentum fading, investors are left wondering: will ADA find footing at $0.75, or is a deeper correction on the horizon?
This analysis dives into the current price dynamics, key technical levels, and potential scenarios shaping ADA’s near-term outlook—offering clarity for traders and long-term holders alike.
ADA Re-tests Key $0.75 Support Zone
On the weekly chart, Cardano’s price action reveals a developing bearish structure. The asset established its cycle high at $1.32 in December 2024, followed by a lower high of $1.19 in February 2025—marking the first confirmation of weakening upward momentum.
This sequence of lower highs is a classic sign of trend exhaustion. More concerning is the bearish candlestick that formed immediately after the February peak, signaling strong selling pressure. Now, ADA is trading within the $0.75 horizontal zone—a level that previously acted as strong resistance for over two years before flipping to support.
Whether ADA bounces from this zone or breaks below it could define its trajectory for the coming months. Historically, horizontal support levels like this one often serve as decision points: a successful bounce can reignite bullish interest, while a breakdown may trigger further capitulation.
Technical Indicators Signal Bearish Bias
Current technical indicators on the weekly timeframe reinforce a cautious outlook. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering just below 50, indicating neutral-to-weak momentum with a downward tilt. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has generated a bearish crossover, suggesting that downward momentum is accelerating.
These signals collectively point to a market losing bullish conviction. While not yet in oversold territory, the lack of upward momentum increases the risk of a breakdown if selling pressure persists.
Given this setup, the balance of probability favors a downside move unless buyers step in decisively to defend the $0.75 level.
Failed Breakout Adds to Downside Risk
On the daily chart, ADA briefly showed signs of strength on March 3, rallying in response to news that Donald Trump had included ADA in a proposed strategic crypto reserve. The move was supported by bullish divergences in both the RSI and MACD—positive signs that often precede trend reversals.
However, the rally stalled at the $1.15 resistance zone, a well-known price barrier. Although ADA initially broke above a descending resistance trend line, the failure to sustain gains above $1.15 invalidated the breakout attempt. Price quickly reversed, forming a lower high and resuming its downward path.
This failed breakout is significant because it removed a key bullish catalyst. Traders who entered long positions expecting continued momentum are now facing losses, increasing the likelihood of further sell-offs.
Elliott Wave Analysis Points to Further Decline
From an Elliott Wave perspective, ADA appears to be in wave C of an A-B-C corrective structure that began after the December 2024 peak. Waves A and C in such patterns are often roughly equal in length.
If wave C mirrors wave A in magnitude, ADA could potentially fall to around **$0.38**—a drop of more than 50% from current levels. This projection assumes a breakdown below the $0.75 support zone, which would confirm a bearish continuation pattern.
While wave counts are interpretive and not guaranteed, this scenario aligns with current price action and technical indicators. A breakdown would likely accelerate selling as algorithmic traders and trend-following systems react to the invalidation of key support.
What Could Reverse the Bearish Outlook?
Despite the prevailing bearish bias, a reversal remains possible under certain conditions. A decisive breakout above $1.15—especially on strong volume—would invalidate the current bearish structure and open the door for new highs.
Such a move would need to be accompanied by strong fundamentals, renewed investor confidence, or broader market recovery in the crypto sector. Until then, the path of least resistance appears downward.
👉 Stay ahead of market shifts—monitor ADA’s price action and volume trends in real time.
Core Keywords and Market Context
The key themes shaping this analysis include Cardano price prediction, ADA technical analysis, cryptocurrency support levels, bearish breakout patterns, Elliott Wave theory, RSI and MACD indicators, horizontal support at $0.75, and crypto market sentiment. These terms reflect both technical and behavioral aspects of ADA’s current market environment.
Understanding these concepts helps investors interpret not just where ADA is now, but where it might go next—based on historical patterns and current momentum.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: What is the significance of the $0.75 level for Cardano?
A: The $0.75 zone is a major horizontal support level that previously acted as resistance for over two years. Its breach could signal a bearish continuation, while a bounce may attract short-term buying interest.
Q: Why did ADA fail to sustain its rally after the crypto reserve news?
A: Despite initial bullish momentum, ADA encountered strong resistance at $1.15. Without follow-through buying volume, the breakout failed—leading to profit-taking and renewed selling pressure.
Q: What does a breakdown below $0.75 mean for ADA holders?
A: A confirmed breakdown could trigger further downside, potentially targeting $0.38 based on Elliott Wave projections. It would also confirm a shift to a long-term bearish trend.
Q: Can ADA recover if it holds $0.75?
A: Yes—holding this level could lead to consolidation or a rebound. However, without breaking above $1.15, any recovery would likely be limited in scope.
Q: How reliable is Elliott Wave analysis for cryptocurrencies?
A: While subjective, Elliott Wave theory provides valuable structural insights when combined with other technical tools. It works best as part of a broader analytical framework.
Q: What factors could change ADA’s current bearish outlook?
A: A strong breakout above $1.15 on high volume, positive network developments, or broader bullish momentum in the crypto market could reverse sentiment.
As Cardano navigates this critical phase, traders should remain vigilant. The $0.75 support level remains the immediate line in the sand. While technicals favor a downside break, markets can shift rapidly on news or sentiment changes.
For those watching ADA closely, staying informed and prepared for multiple scenarios is essential—whether positioning for a bounce or guarding against deeper losses.