The cryptocurrency market was rattled on August 26 when a sudden legal development involving the founder of Telegram (TG) triggered a dramatic 20% drop in the value of The Open Network (TON) token. This unexpected incident—often referred to as a "black swan" event—has reignited concerns about regulatory risks and their cascading effects on blockchain ecosystems closely tied to influential tech figures.
As the dust settles, investors are reevaluating market sentiment, particularly around Bitcoin, which continues to navigate a fragile recovery amid macroeconomic uncertainty. While the broader crypto space grapples with external shocks, technical indicators suggest underlying strength in Bitcoin’s price structure—offering cautious optimism for the remainder of 2025.
The TON Crisis: A Regulatory Ripple Effect
The arrest of Telegram’s founder in France sent shockwaves through the TON blockchain community. Given Telegram’s foundational role in TON’s development and adoption, the news sparked panic selling, leading to a swift 20% decline in the token’s value. French authorities cited allegations of scams and money laundering as key reasons behind the intervention.
This incident echoes past regulatory crackdowns—most notably the 2023 arrest of Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao (CZ)—reinforcing the idea that "history doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes." Both events highlight a growing pattern: when major figures in the crypto ecosystem face legal challenges, markets react swiftly and severely.
While TON’s decline was abrupt, it serves as a critical reminder of the importance of decentralization and regulatory resilience. Projects overly dependent on individual leaders remain vulnerable to sentiment shifts triggered by personal or jurisdictional risks.
👉 Discover how market-moving events impact digital asset trends and what you can do to stay ahead.
Bitcoin’s Technical Outlook: Signs of Strength Amid Volatility
Despite the turbulence caused by the TON fallout, Bitcoin has shown surprising resilience. Let’s break down the technical picture across multiple timeframes to assess its near-term trajectory.
Weekly Chart: Bullish Momentum Building
On the weekly chart, Bitcoin closed with a strong bullish candle above the MA30 (30-week moving average). This is a significant confirmation of upward momentum. Additionally, the MACD indicator is nearing a golden cross—the fast line is approaching the slow line near the zero mark. If price sustains above this level for three consecutive weeks, it will confirm strong institutional support.
A golden cross on the weekly timeframe often precedes extended bull runs, historically seen during previous cycle beginnings. Although short-term volatility may persist, this setup suggests that the medium- to long-term trend remains constructive.
Daily Chart: Consolidation Before the Next Leg Up?
The daily chart presents a more nuanced view. Bitcoin formed a doji candle—a sign of indecision—indicating that buyers and sellers are temporarily balanced. The MA30 line continues to slope downward, suggesting lingering bearish pressure from earlier declines.
However, there's encouraging news: the MACD’s fast line has crossed above zero, while the slow line remains below. This signals that bullish momentum is building but hasn’t yet fully taken control. Given current resistance levels, a period of horizontal consolidation appears likely rather than a sharp reversal.
The ideal scenario? A pullback toward the daily MA30 support zone followed by renewed buying interest—an opportunity for strategic accumulation before the next upward move.
4-Hour Structure: Breakout Confirmed
Zooming into the 4-hour chart reveals a confirmed structural breakout. Price has decisively moved beyond prior resistance zones on increasing volume, indicating genuine demand. This isn’t a false breakout; it reflects real market participation.
In technical analysis, once a structure breaks out successfully, especially after an extended consolidation phase, the probability favors continuation over reversal. In other words, unless clear reversal patterns emerge—such as double tops or bearish engulfing candles—the path of least resistance remains upward.
Two Key Principles for Navigating Bull Markets
During volatile phases like these, adhering to core trading principles can prevent emotional decision-making and protect capital.
Principle 1: Don’t Chase After Big Moves
In a strong bullish trend, many traders feel FOMO (fear of missing out) after missing an initial surge. However, jumping in immediately after a sharp rise is risky. Without clear short-term support levels, stop-loss placement becomes unreliable, increasing exposure to sudden pullbacks.
Instead, patience pays. Wait for price to retest key moving averages or Fibonacci levels before entering long positions. This approach improves risk-reward ratios and aligns with smart money behavior.
Principle 2: Trends Require Reversal Patterns to End
Markets rarely reverse on a dime. Even in overheated conditions, trends typically form topping patterns—like head-and-shoulders, double tops, or extended wicks—before reversing.
Therefore, if Bitcoin remains in an uptrend, assume it will continue until definitive reversal signals appear. Prematurely predicting a top based on emotion or speculation often leads to missed gains.
👉 Learn how to identify real trend reversals and avoid false signals in fast-moving markets.
Could Bitcoin Drop Below $50,000 Again?
Short-term price predictions are inherently uncertain. No one can accurately forecast exact movements over days or weeks. However, we can evaluate potential scenarios that might push Bitcoin back below $50,000.
The answer largely hinges on U.S. monetary policy—and specifically, the Federal Reserve’s upcoming interest rate decisions.
Scenario Analysis: Fed Rate Cuts and Market Reaction
Current market pricing—based on CME FedWatch data—suggests:
- 60% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut in September
- Over 30% chance of a 50 basis point cut
- Low probability of no cut at all
Let’s examine each outcome:
1. 50 Basis Point Cut – Strong Bullish Catalyst
A larger-than-expected cut would signal aggressive monetary easing. Such a move would likely fuel risk appetite across equities and digital assets alike. In this environment, a drop below $50,000 becomes highly improbable. Instead, Bitcoin could accelerate toward new all-time highs.
2. 25 Basis Point Cut – Gradual Recovery
A modest cut aligns with current expectations. While not explosive for price action, it maintains bullish conditions. Growth may be slower, but sustained inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs and increased institutional adoption could support steady appreciation.
3. No Rate Cut – “Black Swan” Risk Returns
If the Fed holds rates steady despite economic softening, markets may interpret this as hawkish overreach. Reduced liquidity expectations could trigger a risk-off sentiment, potentially reopening the door for Bitcoin to test $50,000 again.
Given these dynamics, most analysts expect a 25 basis point cut—supporting continued bullish momentum without extreme volatility.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: What caused the 20% drop in TON?
A: The decline followed the arrest of Telegram’s founder in France over allegations of scams and money laundering. Given Telegram’s close ties to TON’s ecosystem, investor confidence eroded rapidly, triggering mass sell-offs.
Q: Is Bitcoin still in a bull market?
A: Yes. Weekly technical indicators—including price above MA30 and an imminent MACD golden cross—suggest the bull trend remains intact despite short-term consolidation.
Q: Can Bitcoin fall below $50,000 again?
A: It’s possible only under specific conditions—primarily if the Federal Reserve delays interest rate cuts, leading to tighter liquidity and reduced risk appetite.
Q: What should traders do during uncertain times?
A: Focus on risk management. Avoid chasing breakouts and wait for confirmed support levels. Use multi-timeframe analysis to align entries with broader trends.
Q: How do black swan events affect crypto markets?
A: They create short-term panic and volatility but often present buying opportunities for long-term investors who understand project fundamentals and market cycles.
Q: When is the next major catalyst for Bitcoin?
A: The September Fed meeting is critical. A rate cut could ignite renewed momentum, especially if accompanied by strong ETF inflows or macroeconomic easing.
Final Thoughts
While the August 26 black swan event shook investor confidence in certain altcoins like TON, Bitcoin continues to demonstrate structural strength. With favorable macro conditions likely ahead and technical indicators supporting further upside, the path forward appears cautiously optimistic.
Rather than reacting impulsively to headlines, traders should focus on time-tested principles: let trends guide decisions, wait for proper setups, and remain flexible as new information emerges.
The question isn’t whether we’ll see another bull run—it’s whether you’ll be positioned to benefit when it arrives.
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