The cryptocurrency world is abuzz with speculation that major financial institutions BlackRock and Fidelity are preparing to launch spot XRP exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the United States. This anticipated move follows Ripple Labs’ landmark legal resolution with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), a development that has significantly shifted the regulatory landscape for digital assets.
Nate Geraci, a respected ETF analyst and president of The ETF Store, recently expressed strong confidence that approval for a spot XRP ETF is now inevitable. In a widely circulated social media post, Geraci stated, “Seems obvious spot XRP ETF approval simply matter of time IMO. And yes, I expect BlackRock, Fidelity, etc to all be involved.”
His optimism is grounded in the recent conclusion of Ripple’s four-year legal battle with the SEC—a case that once cast uncertainty over XRP’s classification as a security.
How Ripple’s Legal Victory Unlocks the XRP ETF Path
Ripple’s top legal counsel, Stuart Alderoty, confirmed that the company has reached a final settlement with the SEC, agreeing to a $50 million penalty—far below the agency’s original $2 billion demand and even lower than an earlier proposed $125 million fine. Crucially, the SEC has also moved to lift the injunction that previously restricted Ripple from selling XRP in the U.S. market.
This regulatory clarity removes one of the biggest hurdles that had deterred asset managers from filing for an XRP ETF. For years, the SEC’s aggressive stance on crypto assets created a chilling effect on institutional participation. Now, with Ripple prevailing on key arguments—particularly that XRP itself is not inherently a security—the door has opened for traditional finance giants to enter the space.
Ripple lawsuit coming to end…
Seems obvious spot XRP ETF approval simply matter of time IMO.
And yes, I expect BlackRock, Fidelity, etc to all be involved.
XRP currently 3rd largest non-stablecoin crypto asset by market cap.
Largest ETF issuers aren’t going to ignore this.
— Nate Geraci (@NateGeraci) March 26, 2025
With XRP ranking as the third-largest non-stablecoin cryptocurrency by market capitalization, behind only Bitcoin and Ethereum, its institutional appeal is undeniable. Geraci emphasized that asset managers cannot afford to overlook such a prominent digital asset, especially as investor demand for regulated crypto exposure continues to grow.
👉 Discover how institutional adoption is reshaping the future of digital assets.
Will BlackRock Partner With Ripple for an XRP ETF?
While no formal filings have yet been submitted for a spot XRP ETF, market watchers are closely monitoring signals from both Ripple and major financial players. In a recent Bloomberg interview, Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse was asked directly whether the company would collaborate with BlackRock to bring an XRP ETF to market.
Garlinghouse stopped short of confirming any partnership but left little doubt about his stance: “We think it makes sense for the XRP community overall.” This carefully worded statement has fueled widespread speculation that discussions may already be underway behind closed doors.
Historically, BlackRock’s entry into a new asset class has acted as a catalyst for broader market adoption. The firm’s launch of the iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) in 2024 set a precedent, demonstrating its willingness to embrace digital assets under clear regulatory frameworks. With Ripple’s case now resolved, many analysts believe XRP could be next in line.
Furthermore, Garlinghouse has expressed confidence that XRP will eventually be included in the U.S. government’s strategic digital asset reserve—a concept gaining traction among policymakers aiming to strengthen national competitiveness in blockchain technology.
Market Sentiment and Prediction Platforms Signal Strong Approval Odds
Market sentiment around an XRP ETF is increasingly bullish. According to Polymarket, a decentralized prediction platform where users bet on real-world outcomes, there is currently an 84% probability that a spot XRP ETF will be approved by the SEC in 2025.
This high confidence level reflects growing recognition that the SEC’s resistance to altcoin ETFs may be softening. While the agency has historically focused on investor protection concerns, the successful launches of Bitcoin and Ethereum futures ETFs—and more recently, spot Bitcoin ETFs—have established a regulatory playbook that can now be adapted for other major cryptocurrencies.
👉 See how prediction markets are shaping crypto investment strategies today.
Analysts also point to rising trading volumes and increasing liquidity in XRP markets as signs of maturing infrastructure—key factors the SEC considers when evaluating ETF applications.
Could XRP Hit $3 Following ETF Approval?
One of the most frequently asked questions among investors is whether XRP can reach $3 in price if an ETF is approved. Based on current market dynamics and historical precedents, many experts believe this target is not only possible but likely within a reasonable timeframe post-approval.
The introduction of a spot ETF typically brings substantial inflows from institutional investors who prefer regulated investment vehicles over direct crypto holdings. For context, BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin ETF attracted over $10 billion in net inflows within its first six months—a level of demand that drove BTC to new all-time highs.
If even a fraction of that interest flows into an XRP ETF, the resulting buying pressure could propel XRP toward $3 or beyond. Additional catalysts—including global payments adoption through RippleNet and integration with central bank digital currencies (CBDCs)—further strengthen the long-term value proposition.
👉 Explore what drives long-term price growth in major cryptocurrencies.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
When will the XRP ETF be approved?
Polymarket data indicates an 84% chance of approval in 2025. With Ripple’s legal issues resolved and regulatory clarity improving, institutional interest is accelerating—making approval more likely than ever.
Can XRP reach $3 after ETF approval?
Yes—analysts believe strong institutional demand via an ETF could drive XRP’s price to $3 or higher, especially given its current position as the third-largest non-stablecoin cryptocurrency.
Why are BlackRock and Fidelity expected to launch XRP ETFs?
As leaders in asset management, both firms have shown a strategic interest in digital assets. With XRP’s market size and growing legitimacy, excluding it from their crypto offerings would mean missing out on significant investor demand.
Is XRP considered a security after the SEC case?
The court previously ruled that XRP is not inherently a security when sold to retail investors. The recent settlement reinforces this distinction, providing critical clarity for financial institutions considering ETF development.
What impact did Ripple’s reduced fine have on ETF prospects?
Reducing the penalty from $125 million to $50 million—and securing the removal of injunctive relief—signals cooperation and compliance, enhancing Ripple’s credibility with regulators and increasing confidence among potential ETF sponsors.
How does an XRP ETF benefit everyday investors?
An ETF offers a secure, regulated way to gain exposure to XRP without managing private keys or using cryptocurrency exchanges—lowering barriers to entry and expanding access to mainstream portfolios.
Final Outlook: A New Chapter for Crypto Institutionalization
The potential launch of a spot XRP ETF represents more than just another financial product—it signifies a deeper integration of blockchain-based assets into traditional finance. With Ripple’s legal hurdles cleared and giants like BlackRock and Fidelity expected to enter the arena, 2025 could mark a turning point for altcoin adoption.
As regulatory frameworks evolve and investor appetite grows, XRP stands at the forefront of this transformation. Whether through direct investment or via accessible ETFs, the path forward looks increasingly bright for one of crypto’s most established networks.
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