The Bitcoin bull market that began in late 2022 has delivered extraordinary returns, with the leading cryptocurrency surging from around $16,000 to an all-time high near $109,354. Throughout this rally, our analysis consistently supported a bullish stance—issuing multiple buy alerts between $25,000 and $60,000 for premium subscribers. However, as Bitcoin reaches new highs, the market dynamics are shifting.
While pro-crypto developments continue to fuel optimism—such as regulatory progress, ETF approvals, and institutional interest—our technical and on-chain analysis suggests we may be entering the final phase of this bull cycle. Despite favorable headlines, caution is warranted. Historical patterns show that major tops often coincide with peak sentiment and bullish narratives, not weak fundamentals.
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The Danger of Narrative-Driven Investing
Unlike traditional equities, Bitcoin lacks earnings reports, balance sheets, or management teams to guide investment decisions. As a result, many investors rely heavily on news events and macro-level narratives to time their entries and exits. While this approach seems logical, history reveals a troubling pattern: Bitcoin tends to top on good news and bottom on bad news.
Consider these pivotal moments:
- December 2017: The launch of CBOE Bitcoin futures signaled institutional acceptance. One year later, Bitcoin had lost 83% of its value.
- Late 2018: Major miners filed for bankruptcy amid crashing prices. A year later, Bitcoin surged over 150%.
- February 2021: Tesla’s $1.5 billion Bitcoin purchase sparked a wave of corporate adoption hopes. By early 2022, Bitcoin was down 40%.
- September 2021: El Salvador adopted Bitcoin as legal tender. Within a year, price fell 61%.
- November 2022: The FTX collapse triggered industry-wide panic. Yet, just one year later, Bitcoin was up 510%—marking the beginning of the current bull run.
These examples underscore a critical truth: sentiment extremes often precede reversals. When optimism becomes widespread and news-driven narratives dominate, it’s typically a sign of late-stage euphoria—not sustainable momentum.
Technical Analysis: Signs of a Final Bull Wave
Bitcoin’s price action since the 2022 low appears to follow a classic Elliott Wave structure—a five-wave impulse pattern common in strong trending markets. Understanding this framework helps identify where we stand in the current cycle.
The Five-Wave Pattern Explained
- Wave 1: Early adopters enter after the bottom; price rises modestly.
- Wave 2: A sharp correction tests the new support.
- Wave 3: The strongest leg up—driven by institutional inflows and broad participation.
- Wave 4: A sideways or shallow pullback.
- Wave 5: The final push, fueled by FOMO and latecomers.
The third wave is typically the most powerful—marked by explosive volume and momentum. In Bitcoin’s case, this occurred between October 2023 and March 2024, when price rose vertically amid record ETF inflows and growing retail participation.
In contrast, the recent rally to $109,354—the new all-time high—occurred on declining volume and weakening momentum, a classic hallmark of a fifth and final wave.
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This divergence suggests exhaustion in buying pressure. While price made a higher high, the underlying strength did not confirm it—increasing the probability that this rally is nearing its peak.
Three Possible Scenarios for Bitcoin’s Next Move
With the five-wave structure potentially complete, Bitcoin now faces several divergent paths:
Scenario 1: Cycle Complete (Red Count)
The rally to $109,354 marks the final top. A break below $102,000 could trigger a correction toward $60,000, followed by a prolonged consolidation phase into 2026. This would align with historical post-bull market behavior and set the stage for the next long-term accumulation phase.
Scenario 2: Final Push Higher (Green Count)
Bitcoin holds above $79,900 and breaks past $109,354, targeting $120,000 or more. This would represent an extended fifth wave. We would use any such move to significantly reduce exposure, locking in profits before a larger correction.
Scenario 3: Deep Pullback Before Final Ascent (Blue Count)
Price drops toward $60,000 but finds support. From there, a final bullish leg launches toward $120,000+, completing the bull cycle before a major downturn.
While all three are possible, only the green and blue scenarios support further upside. The red count—now viable for the first time since 2022—increases risk and underscores the need for disciplined exit strategies.
On-Chain Data: Health Beneath the Surface
Despite technical warning signs, on-chain metrics suggest underlying strength in Bitcoin’s network—supporting the view that this is a correction within a bull market, not its end.
Key indicators from on-chain analysis include:
- Newly Active Addresses: The number of new addresses with non-zero balances has rebounded 25% from last summer’s lows—even during recent volatility. This indicates sustained organic interest.
- Long-Term Holder Behavior: The percentage of coins not moved in over a year rose from 61.7% to 63.61% by early April, signaling accumulation by hodlers.
- ETF Flows: After record outflows in Q1 2024, Bitcoin ETFs stabilized by mid-March and turned positive by April 21. Net inflows suggest renewed institutional demand.
These dynamics reflect healthy supply-demand balance—a sign that while short-term volatility looms, long-term structural support remains intact.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: Is Bitcoin’s bull run over?
A: Not necessarily. While technicals suggest we may be in the final phase, on-chain data supports at least one more upward move—possibly toward $120,000—before a major correction begins.
Q: Should I sell all my Bitcoin now?
A: Blanket sell decisions are rarely optimal. Instead, consider scaling out of positions as price rises, especially if targets above $110,000 are reached. Use stop-losses and profit-taking levels based on your risk tolerance.
Q: What signals a confirmed top in Bitcoin?
A: A breakdown below $79,900 combined with deteriorating on-chain metrics (e.g., rising exchange reserves, declining active addresses) would increase confidence in a cycle end.
Q: Can Bitcoin go higher even after hitting all-time highs?
A: Yes. Final waves often exceed prior peaks on weakening momentum. However, these moves tend to be short-lived and volatile.
Q: How reliable is Elliott Wave analysis for crypto?
A: When combined with volume, momentum, and on-chain data, Elliott Wave provides valuable context for market structure—especially in identifying late-stage trends.
Q: What should investors do now?
A: Focus on risk management. Preserve capital by taking partial profits, setting stop-losses, and preparing for increased volatility ahead.
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Final Thoughts: Prepare for Volatility
While pro-crypto tailwinds—from regulatory clarity to ETF adoption—are real and meaningful, they do not override cyclical market forces. Bitcoin’s history shows that tops form when optimism peaks—not when news is worst.
We believe another move higher is still possible—perhaps even likely—but it will likely be the final leg of this multi-year bull cycle. Whether it plays out as a direct rally or follows a deeper pullback, the outcome remains the same: increased risk and the need for prudent position management.
For investors sitting on substantial gains, now is the time to implement a risk-aware strategy. Whether you’re aiming to lock in profits or position for the next cycle, clarity comes from data—not headlines.
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