The cryptocurrency market is no stranger to rapid shifts in momentum, and HBAR — the native utility token of the Hedera network — appears to be entering one such phase. After a period of consolidation and gradual upward movement, signs are emerging that HBAR could be on the verge of a significant breakout. With technical indicators flashing green and on-chain data revealing strong accumulation trends, many analysts believe a 20% price increase could be imminent.
This article explores the key technical, on-chain, and sentiment-driven factors supporting this bullish outlook — and why now might be a pivotal moment for HBAR.
HBAR technical analysis: A breakout on the horizon
One of the most compelling arguments for a near-term surge in HBAR’s price comes from its current technical structure. On the four-hour chart, HBAR has been forming a symmetrical triangle pattern — a classic consolidation formation often preceding a strong directional move.
While the price has shown some hesitation at the upper boundary of this pattern, the setup remains intact. A decisive close above $0.328 on the four-hour candle would confirm a breakout, potentially triggering a wave of buying momentum.
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Should this level hold as support post-breakout, technical projections suggest HBAR could climb 20% to reach $0.40** in the short term. More optimistic scenarios, assuming sustained bullish sentiment, point to a further advance toward **$0.46 — another 20% gain from the $0.40 mark.
This two-stage upside target aligns with Fibonacci extension levels and historical volatility patterns observed during previous rallies. The fact that the Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 57 — well below the overbought threshold of 70 — reinforces the idea that upward momentum still has room to build.
With no major resistance zones between $0.33 and $0.40, the path appears relatively clear for a swift move higher if buying pressure intensifies.
On-chain activity reveals strong holder confidence
Technical charts tell part of the story, but on-chain metrics offer deeper insight into market psychology and capital flows. In HBAR’s case, recent data paints a picture of growing confidence among long-term investors.
According to analytics platform Coinglass, HBAR has seen net outflows of $11 million from exchanges over the past week. This is a strong bullish signal, as it suggests holders are moving tokens into private wallets — typically a sign of accumulation or long-term conviction.
When coins leave exchanges, they become less liquid and less likely to be sold in the near term. This reduces potential selling pressure and often precedes price increases.
Moreover, despite a sharp price dip earlier in the week, long-term holders remained neutral rather than panic-selling. Instead, many appear to be accumulating more tokens, indicating belief in HBAR’s medium- to long-term value proposition.
Trader sentiment leans strongly bullish
Market sentiment plays a crucial role in short-term price action, especially in volatile crypto markets. For HBAR, current sentiment among traders is overwhelmingly positive.
Coinglass data shows an HBAR long/short ratio of 1.005, meaning slightly more traders are opening long (buy) positions than short (sell) ones. While this ratio isn’t extremely skewed, it reflects balanced but optimistic positioning — ideal for sustained upward movement without the risk of a violent short squeeze or over-leveraged bubble.
A healthy mix of longs and shorts often leads to more stable rallies, as it prevents extreme volatility caused by mass liquidations. This balance suggests that the current bullish momentum is built on solid footing rather than speculative frenzy.
Why Hedera’s fundamentals support higher prices
Beyond technicals and sentiment, HBAR’s underlying network — Hedera Hashgraph — continues to strengthen its real-world utility.
Hedera is a high-performance distributed ledger technology known for its fast transaction speeds, low fees, and energy efficiency. Unlike traditional blockchain systems that rely on proof-of-work or even proof-of-stake consensus, Hedera uses a gossip-about-gossip protocol combined with asynchronous Byzantine Fault Tolerance (aBFT), making it one of the most secure and scalable public networks available.
Enterprises across industries — including supply chain, finance, gaming, and digital identity — are increasingly adopting Hedera for its reliability and regulatory compliance. Major partners like Google, IBM, and Boeing are already part of the Hedera Governing Council, lending institutional credibility to the network.
As adoption grows, so does demand for HBAR tokens, which are used to pay for transactions, smart contracts, and decentralized file storage on the network. Increased usage translates directly into higher token velocity and potential upward pressure on price.
👉 Learn how real-world adoption drives long-term crypto value growth.
FAQ: Your questions about HBAR’s price potential — answered
Q: What is the significance of HBAR breaking $0.328?
A: A confirmed breakout above $0.328 on the four-hour chart would invalidate the current symmetrical triangle pattern and signal strong buying momentum. Historically, such breakouts lead to at least a 15–20% move in the direction of the breakout.
Q: Is HBAR undervalued compared to other enterprise-focused blockchains?
A: Many analysts believe so. Given Hedera’s superior throughput (up to 10,000 TPS), low energy consumption, and council-governed model, HBAR remains attractively priced relative to competitors like Solana or Cardano when evaluating fundamentals.
Q: Can exchange outflows really impact price?
A: Yes. When tokens move off exchanges, they’re less likely to be sold immediately. Large outflows reduce circulating supply and often precede price rallies, as seen with Bitcoin and Ethereum during previous accumulation phases.
Q: What could derail HBAR’s bullish momentum?
A: A broader market downturn, negative regulatory news, or failure to close above $0.328 could delay or negate the expected rally. Additionally, if long positions become overly dominant, a sudden reversal could trigger liquidations and accelerate downside moves.
Q: How does RSI below 70 support further gains?
A: An RSI reading below 70 indicates that an asset isn’t overbought yet. At 57, HBAR still has room to appreciate before reaching levels where profit-taking typically increases.
Q: What’s the next major resistance level after $0.40?
A: After $0.40, the next psychological and technical resistance lies around **$0.46, followed by $0.50**, which would represent a new multi-month high depending on broader market conditions.
Final thoughts: Is now the time for HBAR?
HBAR is showing multiple signs of strength across technicals, on-chain behavior, and market sentiment. The confluence of a potential chart breakout, strong exchange outflows, and rising institutional adoption creates a compelling narrative for upside momentum.
While no asset is without risk — especially in crypto — the current setup suggests that **a 20% move toward $0.40 is not only possible but probable** if bulls maintain control. A further push to $0.46 remains within reach under sustained positive conditions.
For investors watching from the sidelines, this may be an opportune moment to assess HBAR’s position in the broader ecosystem and consider exposure ahead of what could be a defining quarter for Hedera’s growth.
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As always, conduct your own research and consider risk management strategies before entering any position. But one thing is clear: HBAR is no longer flying under the radar.