The return of Bitcoin to $94,000 has reignited bullish sentiment across the crypto markets. After a brief dip, BTC surged nearly 7% overnight on April 23, fueled by former U.S. President Donald Trump’s announcement of reduced tariffs on China — a move that boosted investor confidence in risk assets. Social media is buzzing with talk of a new bull run, and traders in the secondary market are jumping back into action.
Yet, amid this euphoria, a quieter, more somber reality unfolds behind the scenes. For many early-stage (primary market) investors, the rally feels distant — even bittersweet. While BTC climbs, their portfolios remain locked, depreciated, and in some cases, devastated.
The Hidden Cost of Lockups
Bitcoin’s resurgence to $94K is a win for traders who can buy and sell freely. But for primary investors — those who participated in private sales or early funding rounds — most of their assets are still under lockup agreements, preventing them from cashing out.
A revealing chart from STIX (@stix_co), a platform specializing in OTC (over-the-counter) trading for pre-unlock tokens, highlights a harsh truth: despite BTC’s 45% gain over the past year, the average valuation of locked tokens has plummeted by 50%.
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Let’s break it down:
- BLAST: Valuation dropped from $250M to $30M (-88%)
- EIGEN: Fell from $600M to $150M (-75%)
- SCR: Crashed from $170M to $25.5M (-85%)
- Only JTO defied the trend, rising from $100M to $175M (+75%)
These figures represent the difference between OTC valuations at time of investment (2024) and current public market valuations (2025). In simpler terms: if an investor held onto their tokens instead of selling via OTC pre-unlock, they’ve lost half — or more — of their paper value.
And here’s the sting: OTC sales typically happen at 80–90% of projected valuation. That means early investors who exited early might have only lost 10–20%, or even broken even. Those who held? They’re now facing catastrophic devaluation.
The Opportunity Cost Trap
You might argue: “But their entry price was lower — they’re still profitable, right?”
Not necessarily.
Beyond nominal gains lies the concept of opportunity cost — one of the most overlooked yet critical metrics in investing.
Consider this:
If an investor had sold their locked tokens a year ago and converted the proceeds into Bitcoin, they’d have benefited from BTC’s 45% appreciation. Their capital would now be worth 1.45x its original value.
Instead, many are sitting on assets worth just 0.5x — and when unlock finally comes, market overhang could force further price drops, potentially reducing realizable value to 0.25x or less.
That’s not just a loss — it’s an 82.8% underperformance compared to holding BTC.
In essence, after all the research, due diligence, and patience, many primary investors would have been better off doing nothing — or as one might say in crypto circles:
“Just HODL Bitcoin.”
This echoes Burton Malkiel’s famous “monkey throwing darts” theory from A Random Walk Down Wall Street — the idea that random stock selection can match or beat professional fund managers. In today’s crypto climate, it’s painfully relevant: spending months analyzing whitepapers and project fundamentals may yield worse returns than simply buying BTC and walking away.
Is the Era of Lockup Investments Over?
For years, lockup mechanisms were justified as safeguards — meant to prevent early investors from dumping tokens and crashing prices post-launch. But now, evidence suggests these same mechanisms are backfiring, turning into wealth-eroding traps for the very people meant to benefit.
With over $40 billion worth of locked tokens scheduled to unlock in the coming months, the market faces a potential tsunami of sell pressure. If new projects continue launching with high valuations and long lockups, history may repeat itself: investors lock up, prices drop, and everyone loses except those who exited early or held BTC.
So, what’s next?
Emerging Trends Reshaping Primary Investment
- Shorter Lockup Periods
Projects are beginning to adopt phased unlocks or shorter lock durations to reduce investor risk and improve trust. - Lower Entry Valuations
Instead of sky-high seed round multiples, newer projects are opting for more realistic pricing — aligning closer with actual utility and demand. - Fair Launches & Meme Coin Models
Some teams are bypassing traditional VC funding altogether, opting for community-driven launches. While not immune to manipulation, these models reduce the influence of privileged insiders. - Transparency & On-Chain Vesting
Clear, auditable vesting schedules published on-chain help build credibility and allow secondary markets to price risk more accurately.
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Still, challenges remain. Even with “fairer” appearances, many meme-inspired launches still hide centralized control structures — what some call “new wine in old bottles.” The game may look different, but the playbook hasn’t changed.
Can Primary Market Confidence Return?
Will we see a revival of enthusiasm for early-stage crypto investing? Possibly — but only if the ecosystem evolves.
Investors are waking up to the fact that value isn’t created by hype or exclusivity, but by real adoption, liquidity, and sustainable token design. The era of blind faith in high-valuation private rounds is fading.
As markets mature, so must mechanisms. Lockups shouldn’t be a punishment for belief — they should be a bridge between early support and long-term growth.
Until then, the phrase “a bull market for some is a bear market for others” rings truer than ever.
After all, crypto doesn’t generate value — it transfers it. And every winner implies a loser.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: What is a lockup period in crypto?
A: A lockup period is a set timeframe during which early investors, team members, or advisors cannot sell their allocated tokens after a project launches. It's designed to prevent massive sell-offs that could crash the price.
Q: Why are locked tokens losing value even as Bitcoin rises?
A: Many altcoins were overvalued during private sales based on speculation rather than fundamentals. As markets cool and unlock dates approach, public trading reveals true demand — often far below initial projections.
Q: Should I invest in private sales or pre-launch projects?
A: Proceed with caution. While high rewards are possible, risks include illiquidity, valuation collapse, and project failure. Always assess team credibility, token utility, and vesting terms.
Q: How can I assess the real value of a locked token?
A: Look at OTC trading data (like STIX provides), compare public market performance of similar projects, and analyze on-chain vesting schedules to estimate future supply pressure.
Q: Is holding Bitcoin better than investing in altcoins?
A: Historically, BTC has outperformed most altcoins over long periods — especially during uncertain markets. Diversification has merit, but BTC remains the lowest-risk bet in crypto.
Q: Will large token unlocks cause market crashes?
A: Not necessarily — if unlocks are well-communicated and spread over time. However, poorly structured releases can lead to sharp sell-offs, especially if sentiment is weak or liquidity is low.
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