Stellar (XLM) has surged over 20% in the past 24 hours, climbing to $0.30 — its highest price since December 2021. Over the past week, the cryptocurrency has skyrocketed by 124.86%, capturing renewed investor attention and reigniting interest in its long-term potential. With its market capitalization nearing the $10 billion milestone, XLM is once again stepping into the spotlight of the digital asset space.
This rapid appreciation reflects strong bullish momentum, supported by technical indicators like the Rate of Transmission Index (RTI), which remains in overbought territory. However, not all signals point upward — Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) shows only modest improvement, suggesting that sustained capital inflows may be needed to maintain this rally.
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XLM’s Impressive Rally: Momentum Meets Market Sentiment
The recent surge in Stellar's price didn’t happen in isolation. A combination of improved market sentiment, growing institutional interest, and broader optimism around scalable blockchain networks has fueled this rally. At $0.30, XLM has reclaimed levels not seen for more than three years, signaling a potential shift from bearish to bullish dominance.
One of the key drivers behind this move is the sharp rise in the Rate of Transmission Index (RTI), which jumped from below 60 to 74.10 within just 24 hours. RTI is a momentum oscillator that measures both the speed and magnitude of price changes. Values above 70 indicate overbought conditions, often preceding short-term pullbacks — but also reflecting intense buying pressure.
Historically, Stellar has seen periods where RTI remained above 70 for several consecutive days while prices continued to climb. This suggests that even in overbought zones, upward momentum can persist before any significant correction occurs.
“An overbought signal doesn’t mean a reversal is imminent — it means the market is excited. The real question is whether that excitement can be sustained.”
That said, traders should remain cautious. Extended time in overbought territory increases the likelihood of profit-taking, especially if fresh buying interest doesn’t continue to enter the market.
Mixed Signals: Strong RTI vs. Weak CMF
While RTI paints a picture of robust momentum, Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) tells a more cautious story. Currently at 0.06, CMF has turned positive after dipping to -0.10 just a day earlier — a sign that capital is beginning to flow back into XLM.
CMF evaluates the balance between buying and selling pressure by analyzing volume and closing prices over a 21-day period. Positive values suggest net accumulation (bullish), while negative values indicate distribution (bearish).
However, the current CMF reading of 0.06 is relatively weak compared to previous bullish runs. In mid-November, for example, CMF reached 0.40 and stayed above 0.10 for nearly a week — indicating consistent institutional or large-scale retail buying.
Today’s weaker reading implies that while demand is returning, it hasn’t yet reached the intensity required to confirm a durable uptrend.
👉 See how on-chain volume and flow metrics can reveal hidden market trends before they break out.
Key Support and Resistance Levels for XLM
As XLM approaches critical resistance near $0.30, the next major target becomes clear: **a $10 billion market cap. Achieving this would require a 15.7% increase** from current levels — an ambitious but achievable goal if bullish momentum holds.
To sustain this trajectory, XLM must successfully defend key support zones:
- Primary Support: $0.14 — This level represents the strongest nearby floor based on historical trading activity.
- Secondary Support: $0.0994 — A breakdown below $0.14 could trigger a deeper correction, potentially leading to a 67% retracement from recent highs.
On the upside:
- Immediate Resistance: $0.32 — A breakout here could open the path toward $0.35.
- Long-Term Target: $0.50+ — Would require sustained adoption, ecosystem growth, and broader market tailwinds.
Technical analysis suggests that holding above $0.25 will be crucial for maintaining bullish structure. A close below this level could signal weakening confidence and prompt further downside pressure.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: What caused Stellar (XLM) to surge recently?
A: The surge was driven by strong short-term momentum, reflected in rising RTI values and renewed investor interest in scalable Layer-1 blockchains. Broader crypto market recovery and speculation around future network upgrades also contributed.
Q: Is XLM overbought? Should I sell?
A: With RTI at 74.10, XLM is technically overbought. While this doesn’t guarantee a reversal, it does increase the risk of short-term pullbacks. Traders should monitor volume and CMF trends to assess whether strength is building for continuation or exhaustion is setting in.
Q: Can Stellar reach a $10 billion market cap?
A: Yes — it would require XLM to rise about 15.7% from current levels. Whether it sustains that climb depends on continued capital inflows and positive market conditions across the crypto sector.
Q: What happens if XLM drops below $0.14?
A: A break below $0.14 could trigger extended selling pressure, with potential downside toward $0.0994 — representing a roughly 67% decline from peak levels.
Q: How does CMF affect XLM’s price outlook?
A: CMF measures money flow strength. At 0.06, it shows slight accumulation but lacks confirmation of strong institutional buying. For a sustainable rally, CMF should rise above 0.15–0.20 with increasing volume.
Q: Is Stellar still relevant in today’s crypto market?
A: Absolutely. Stellar remains focused on cross-border payments and financial inclusion, partnering with institutions and central banks globally. Its low-cost, high-speed transactions keep it competitive in the fintech and remittance sectors.
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Final Outlook: Bullish Potential Amid Caution
Stellar’s recent performance demonstrates that it still commands attention in volatile markets. The jump to $0.30 marks a significant psychological and technical milestone — one that could attract new investors and traders alike.
Yet, as with any rapid rally, risks are present. Overbought conditions, tepid money flow, and tight support margins mean that caution is warranted alongside optimism.
For those watching XLM closely, the coming days will be critical. A decisive break above $0.32 with strong volume could confirm a new bullish phase. Conversely, failure to hold gains may lead to consolidation or correction.