The Shiba Inu (SHIB) market is undergoing a significant shift as a wave of profit-taking triggers a 4% price drop. With over 62% of holders now in profit, selling pressure has intensified, threatening key technical support levels. Unless fresh demand emerges, bearish indicators suggest SHIB could dip toward $0.000020. This analysis dives into on-chain data, momentum signals, and critical price levels shaping SHIB’s near-term outlook.
🔍 On-Chain Data Reveals Widespread Profit-Taking
A surge in selling activity has coincided with a major milestone: 829 trillion SHIB tokens are now held in profitable positions across 851,000 addresses—representing 62% of all holders. According to IntoTheBlock’s in/out of the money metric, these addresses acquired their tokens at average prices below the current market value.
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When a large portion of an asset’s supply moves into profit, it often precedes a correction. Traders who bought during earlier dips now have strong incentives to lock in gains, especially amid uncertain market conditions.
Conversely, 398,000 addresses—holding approximately 82.39 trillion SHIB—remain underwater. These holders are currently at a loss, meaning their average purchase price exceeds the current market value. This divergence between profitable and unprofitable holders highlights growing tension in the SHIB ecosystem.
Why Profit-Taking Matters
Profit-taking isn’t inherently negative—it’s a natural part of market cycles. However, when concentrated across a majority of holders, it can create a self-reinforcing sell-off. As more traders exit positions, downward price pressure builds, potentially triggering stop-loss orders or discouraging new buyers.
📉 Bearish Momentum Builds: CMF and MACD Signal Weakness
Beyond on-chain data, technical indicators are flashing warning signs for SHIB.
Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) Shows Declining Buying Pressure
The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) for SHIB currently stands at 0.08 and is trending downward toward the zero baseline. CMF measures the balance between buying and selling pressure over a 21-day period. A reading above zero indicates accumulation (buying), while a drop below zero signals distribution (selling).
With CMF edging closer to neutral territory, institutional and retail inflows appear to be slowing. This weakening buying momentum suggests that recent rallies may lack sustainable demand.
MACD Confirms Bearish Reversal Pattern
Even more concerning is the formation of a bearish MACD crossover. As of the latest data, SHIB’s MACD line (blue) has crossed below the signal line (orange)—a classic sign of declining bullish momentum.
This technical setup typically precedes further downside movement. It indicates that short-term momentum is now weaker than longer-term trends, reinforcing the idea that the upward trajectory seen in previous weeks may have stalled.
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💡 Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: What does "in/out of the money" mean for SHIB holders?
A: An address is “in the money” if its SHIB holdings are worth more than what was paid on average to acquire them—meaning the holder would profit if they sold now. Conversely, “out of the money” means the current price is lower than their average cost basis, resulting in a paper loss.
Q: Why is 62% of holders being in profit a concern?
A: When a large majority of holders are profitable, it increases the likelihood of widespread selling. Many investors tend to cash out gains after sharp price increases, which can trigger a cascade of sell orders and lead to a pullback.
Q: What is the significance of the $0.000022 support level?
A: $0.000022 is a critical psychological and technical support zone. If SHIB holds above this level, it may stabilize and attempt a rebound. However, a breakdown below could open the door to further losses, potentially targeting $0.000020.
Q: Can SHIB recover from this sell-off?
A: Yes—recovery depends on renewed demand. If new buyers enter the market or speculative interest in meme coins rebounds, SHIB could reclaim resistance at $0.000026 and aim for its recent high of $0.000030.
Q: How reliable are MACD and CMF indicators for cryptocurrencies?
A: While no indicator is foolproof, MACD and CMF are widely used across crypto markets due to their ability to capture momentum shifts. They work best when combined with on-chain data and price action analysis.
📊 SHIB Price Outlook: Key Levels to Watch
As of this writing, Shiba Inu trades at $0.000025**, down 4% in the past 24 hours. Despite the pullback, price remains above the immediate support at **$0.000022. Holding this level will be crucial for maintaining market confidence.
Potential Downside: $0.000020 Target
If selling pressure continues and support breaks, technical models suggest a move toward $0.000020. This zone represents a confluence of prior swing lows and increased sell-side liquidity, making it a likely target in a bearish scenario.
Upside Potential: Reclaiming Momentum
On the flip side, if profit-taking subsides and fresh capital flows into meme coins, SHIB could challenge resistance at $0.000026**. A sustained breakout above this level might reignite bullish sentiment and pave the way toward retesting its eight-month high of **$0.000030.
Market sentiment will play a pivotal role. Factors such as broader Bitcoin trends, social media buzz, and macroeconomic developments could influence whether SHIB stabilizes or enters a deeper correction.
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🧠 Final Thoughts: Navigating Volatility in Meme Coin Markets
Shiba Inu remains one of the most watched meme coins due to its massive community and high volatility. The current phase reflects a typical post-rally consolidation pattern—where early investors take profits and the market tests underlying demand.
For traders and long-term holders alike, understanding on-chain behavior, technical momentum, and key price levels is essential for navigating these turbulent waters.
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While short-term pressure weighs on SHIB, the story isn’t over. Meme coins thrive on narratives and sentiment shifts—and a single catalyst could reignite enthusiasm overnight.
Until then, patience and vigilance are key. Watch for signs of stabilizing volume, CMF turning positive, or MACD reversal as potential signals of recovery on the horizon.