The Bitcoin (BTC) market is at a pivotal crossroads, with price action tightening around the critical 790,000 RMB (~$109,300) resistance level. After weeks of consolidation between 725,000 and 798,000 RMB ($100,000–$110,000), traders and institutions alike are bracing for a decisive breakout—or breakdown. The outcome could determine whether BTC enters a new phase of bullish expansion or reverts to deeper consolidation.
Institutional Demand Fuels Bullish Momentum
A major catalyst behind recent optimism comes from institutional adoption, particularly in Asia. Tokyo-listed Metaplanet Inc. recently announced the acquisition of 1,234 BTC for 19.27 billion JPY (~$124 million), bringing its total holdings to 12,345 BTC—valued at approximately 9.64 billion RMB. This move surpasses Tesla’s current BTC reserve (11,509 BTC), making Metaplanet the largest publicly traded Asian company holder and seventh globally.
Metaplanet’s aggressive strategy stems from its innovative “2.1 Billion Plan,” a zero-interest bond and warrant-based financing model that has already raised over 35 billion JPY (~$225 million) dedicated to Bitcoin accumulation. With a reported "BTC yield" of 112.2%, the company aims to hold 210,000 BTC—1% of Bitcoin’s total supply—by the end of 2027.
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This surge in corporate treasury adoption mirrors growing confidence in Bitcoin as a long-term store of value and balance sheet hedge, especially amid global macroeconomic uncertainty.
U.S. Government Moves Signal Strategic Shift
In a landmark development, senior U.S. official Patrick Witt confirmed that the proposed Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR) initiative is now operational. An interagency report outlining implementation details will be delivered to the President by early July. For the first time, a U.S. government figure has framed Bitcoin as a triple-threat national asset: a driver of economic growth, a tool for shaping future monetary systems, and a geopolitical instrument to reinforce dollar dominance.
The Department of Defense’s Office of Strategic Capital (OSC) has also signaled interest in funding energy and computing infrastructure tied to Bitcoin mining, potentially offering direct financial support to miners. While daily miner revenue has dipped to $34 million—the lowest since April—on-chain data reveals resilience.
Miner Behavior Reinforces Market Confidence
Despite declining revenues, miners are holding firm. According to on-chain analytics, daily BTC outflows to exchanges have plummeted from 23,000 coins in February to just 4,000 on June 26. Long-term holders—including early “Satoshi-era” miners—have sold only 150 BTC in 2025 so far.
Wallets holding between 100 and 1,000 BTC—a key cohort representing mid-sized mining operations—have increased their aggregate holdings to 65,000 BTC, the highest since November 2024. This “diamond hands” behavior underscores strong conviction and is supported by a healthy Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) ratio of 48%, indicating sustainable profitability without excessive greed.
Technical Outlook: Breakout or Breakdown?
Bitcoin has traded within a narrow range for seven consecutive weeks, testing investor patience. The current price hovers near 780,000 RMB (~$107,600), just under the crucial 792,000 RMB ($109,300) ceiling that has repelled multiple attempts since March.
Key technical indicators present a mixed but hopeful picture:
- Support Levels: The zone between 674,000 and 725,000 RMB ($93,000–$100,000) acts as a dense cost base. A brief dip to 718,000 RMB ($99,000) last week triggered a swift rebound, reaffirming its strength.
- Moving Averages: The 50-day (688K RMB) and 100-day (641K RMB) moving averages provide dynamic support, while the 200-day line (525K RMB) remains a bedrock for the ongoing bull trend.
- Derivatives Market: Futures markets have undergone significant deleveraging, with $28.6 million in longs and $25.2 million in shorts liquidated during recent volatility. Open interest has dropped 7%, reflecting caution ahead of the breakout.
However, volume remains subdued—raising concerns about follow-through demand if price pushes higher.
Chain Analysis Hints at Imminent Move
Long-term holder (LTH) accumulation patterns near the $100,000 level closely resemble those seen before previous major breakouts. Analyst Axel Adler notes that while LTHs are actively buying, full accumulation may take another 4–8 weeks. A confirmed breakout above 792K RMB could trigger cascading short squeezes and algorithmic buy orders.
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Conservative price targets following a successful breach point to 1.16 million RMB (~$160,000)—a move aligned with historical post-consolidation rallies.
Global Sentiment Expands Beyond the U.S. and Japan
India is also emerging as a potential player in national Bitcoin strategy. BJP leader Pradeep Bhandari recently called on the Reserve Bank of India to explore adding Bitcoin to national reserves through a small-scale pilot program. He cited Bhutan’s hydropower-driven mining model as inspiration and emphasized Bitcoin’s role in enhancing economic resilience.
Meanwhile, Dogecoin (DOGE) shows signs of hidden strength. Analyst Trader Tardigrade identified a bullish divergence and noted that DOGE’s long-standing upward trendline from September 2023 remains intact. A bounce from this level could boost overall crypto market sentiment.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: Why is the 792,000 RMB level so important for Bitcoin?
A: This level has repeatedly blocked upward momentum since March 2025. A confirmed close above it would invalidate months of resistance and likely trigger technical buy signals and short-covering activity.
Q: Can Bitcoin sustain its price if institutional buying slows?
A: While institutions like Metaplanet add strong support, miner holding behavior and long-term investor accumulation suggest organic demand remains robust even if corporate purchases pause.
Q: What happens if Bitcoin fails to break 792K RMB?
A: A rejection could lead to retesting of the key support zone between 674K–725K RMB. A close below this range might spark broader market concern and increased selling pressure.
Q: How does U.S. government involvement impact Bitcoin’s price?
A: Official recognition through initiatives like the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve boosts legitimacy and could pave the way for regulated investment vehicles or even direct federal participation in the ecosystem.
Q: Is miner profitability affecting network security?
A: Although miner revenue has declined, reduced exchange outflows indicate miners are choosing to hold rather than sell—a sign of confidence that supports network stability despite tighter margins.
With institutional momentum building, miner resolve holding strong, and global policy discussions accelerating, Bitcoin stands at the edge of a defining moment. The battle for 792,000 RMB isn’t just about price—it’s about narrative control, market structure evolution, and the asset’s role in the future of finance.
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Whether bulls surge past resistance or bears defend their ground, one thing is clear: the world is watching.