The crypto market has been through a grueling six-month downturn, shaking investor confidence and sparking heated debates across forums and social media. Yet, beneath the surface, a quiet transformation is taking place. A series of on-chain metrics suggest that accumulation is underway, sentiment is shifting, and the foundation for a potential bull run may already be forming.
While prices haven’t yet reached new all-time highs, the underlying data tells a compelling story of resilience and growing strength. Let’s dive into five critical indicators that signal the market may be poised for a significant upward move.
Bitcoin Spot ETFs See Strong Net Inflows
One of the most telling signs of institutional interest is the performance of Bitcoin spot ETFs. These funds reflect real, external capital entering the market—money from traditional investors who trust third parties to hold BTC on their behalf.
Since their launch, Bitcoin spot ETFs have accumulated a total net inflow of $206.6 billion. What’s particularly encouraging is the recent trend: in October alone, there were 7 days of net inflows compared to just 6 days of outflows. More importantly, the inflow amounts far outweigh the outflows.
For example:
- October 14: $555 million in net inflows
- October 16 and 17: over $450 million each day
- October 15: more than $370 million
This imbalance—where inflows are both frequent and substantial—suggests strong conviction among institutional buyers. Even Ethereum spot ETFs, which have faced cooler reception, saw a rare single-day inflow of $48.4 million in October, hinting at broader institutional appetite returning to crypto.
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Stablecoin Supply Nears All-Time High
Stablecoins act as the "dry powder" of the crypto market—funds parked in USD-pegged assets, ready to be deployed when opportunities arise. When stablecoin supply grows, it often precedes bullish momentum.
In mid-2022, stablecoin market cap peaked at $186.3 billion**. After a prolonged drawdown, it fell but remained above $120 billion—a sign that capital didn’t fully exit the ecosystem. Now, in late 2025, the total stablecoin supply has surged to over $172.3 billion**, edging close to its historical high.
This resurgence indicates that traders are positioning themselves with liquidity, likely anticipating price increases. Historically, such levels have preceded major rallies, as holders prepare to swap stablecoins for risk-on assets like Bitcoin and altcoins.
With so much firepower sitting on the sidelines, the potential for rapid upward movement is real—especially if macro conditions improve.
Over 95% of Bitcoin Addresses Now in Profit
The Bitcoin unrealized profit-to-loss ratio is a powerful sentiment indicator. It shows what percentage of BTC addresses are holding coins purchased at lower prices—i.e., those currently in profit.
The metric uses a color gradient:
- Blue: Most holders are underwater (bearish)
- Yellow to Red: Majority are in profit (bullish)
Currently, the market has climbed from deep blue into the yellow zone, signaling widespread profitability. According to IntoTheBlock data, 95% of Bitcoin addresses are now in profit—a level typically seen during strong bull phases.
While this could suggest overheating, it also reflects healing after months of pain. When most investors are no longer in loss-making positions, selling pressure diminishes, allowing upward momentum to build. However, caution is warranted: once optimism turns to euphoria (entering red), profit-taking tends to accelerate.
For now, we’re in the “growing belief” phase—not yet at peak greed.
Long-Term Holders Are Accumulating Aggressively
The behavior of long-term Bitcoin holders—defined as addresses holding BTC for more than 155 days—offers insight into smart money activity.
Historically, long-term supply drops during market tops as whales take profits. Conversely, during downturns, they accumulate quietly before the next leg up.
Since late July 2025, this group has resumed aggressive buying. The uptick in long-term holdings is visibly steep on charts—a sign of strong conviction. These aren’t speculative traders; they’re strategic investors betting on long-term value appreciation.
Even more telling: new whale addresses are emerging and accumulating BTC at an unprecedented rate. Per CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju, this level of organic whale accumulation has no precedent—and crucially, it's not directly linked to ETF inflows. This suggests fresh institutional or high-net-worth interest outside regulated products.
When insiders buy while public sentiment remains cautious, it often precedes major price moves.
Total Bitcoin Open Interest Hits Record High
Leveraged trading activity is captured by open interest—the total value of outstanding futures contracts. While excessive leverage can increase volatility, rising open interest alongside price growth signals strong bullish sentiment.
According to Coinglass, total Bitcoin open interest recently surpassed **$39.7 billion**, breaking the previous high of $38 billion set earlier in 2025. This marks the first time open interest has reached this level, reflecting growing trader confidence.
Importantly, open interest has stayed elevated throughout the second half of the year—even during price consolidation—indicating persistent engagement rather than short-term speculation.
However, high open interest can amplify corrections. When sentiment becomes too one-sided, exchanges often see "long squeezes," where leveraged buyers are forced to liquidate during dips. So while this data point is bullish, it also calls for risk awareness.
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FAQ: Your Burning Questions Answered
Q: Does record ETF inflow guarantee a bull market?
A: Not guaranteed—but it’s a strong leading indicator. Sustained institutional demand increases buying pressure and reduces circulating supply, creating favorable conditions for price growth.
Q: What happens when most BTC holders are in profit?
A: Initially positive—it reduces panic selling. But if too many become greedy too fast, it can lead to mass sell-offs when prices stall. Watch for signs of euphoria.
Q: Are stablecoins really a reliable signal?
A: Yes. Rising stablecoin supply means more capital is available to enter the market. When people convert USDT or USDC into BTC or ETH, prices tend to rise.
Q: How do long-term holder trends affect price?
A: When long-term holders buy and hold, less BTC circulates on exchanges—tightening supply. This scarcity can drive prices up when demand increases.
Q: Is high open interest dangerous?
A: It can be. High leverage increases volatility. A sudden price drop could trigger cascading liquidations. But moderate growth in open interest alongside rising prices is generally healthy.
Q: Could macro factors support a crypto bull run?
A: Absolutely. With expected rate cuts from the Fed in late 2025, global liquidity may rise—pushing investors toward higher-risk assets like cryptocurrencies.
Final Outlook: The Stage Is Set
Despite months of sideways trading and frustration, key metrics point to strengthening fundamentals:
- Institutional capital is flowing in via ETFs
- Stablecoin reserves are nearing all-time highs
- Most investors are finally back in profit
- Smart money continues to accumulate
- Trader enthusiasm is reaching new extremes
Combined with potential monetary easing from central banks, these factors create fertile ground for a bull market resurgence.
As the saying goes: “Markets are born in despair, grow in doubt, mature in optimism, and die in euphoria.” Right now, we appear to be moving from doubt toward optimism—with momentum building beneath the surface.
👉 Ready to act before the next surge? Monitor live data and position yourself early.
The question isn’t whether a bull run will happen—it’s whether you’ll be positioned when it does.