Bitcoin has reclaimed a position above $105,000 following a sharp correction triggered by macroeconomic turbulence and high-profile political tension. The recent volatility, amplified by a public disagreement between former U.S. President Donald Trump and tech entrepreneur Elon Musk, sent shockwaves through an already fragile crypto market. However, with price stability returning over the past 48 hours, market analysts are turning their attention to key on-chain indicators that could determine Bitcoin’s next major move.
One of the most closely watched metrics comes from blockchain analytics firm Glassnode, which has highlighted the critical role of the Short-Term Holder (STH) cost basis—currently sitting at $97,100—as a pivotal level for Bitcoin’s future trajectory.
Understanding the STH Cost Basis
The Short-Term Holder cost basis refers to the average price at which Bitcoin investors have acquired their holdings within the last 155 days. Unlike long-term holders, who tend to remain resilient during market swings, short-term holders are more sensitive to price fluctuations and often drive momentum during breakout or breakdown phases.
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This makes the STH cost basis a powerful psychological and technical benchmark. When Bitcoin trades above this level, it signals confidence among recent buyers and encourages further accumulation. Conversely, a drop below it can trigger panic selling and liquidations, especially in leveraged markets.
Glassnode’s analysis leverages the Work of Cost (WOC) framework to refine this metric, applying standard deviation bands to project potential support and resistance zones.
Key Price Levels to Watch in 2025
According to Glassnode’s model, two critical price points emerge from the current STH cost basis:
- **$114,800 (+1 Standard Deviation)** – This level represents a potential breakout zone. A sustained move above $114,800 would indicate strong bullish momentum and could unlock significant upward pressure as traders and institutions re-enter the market.
- **$83,200 (-1 Standard Deviation)** – On the downside, this level acts as a major support threshold. A confirmed break below $83,200 would suggest a collapse in market structure and could lead to cascading liquidations, particularly if sentiment turns risk-averse.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at **$105,745**, reflecting a modest 1.07% gain over the past 24 hours. However, trading volume has declined by **34.27%**, settling at $38.66 billion—a sign that the market may be entering a consolidation phase.
This reduced volume suggests that traders are waiting for clearer directional cues before committing capital. The outcome likely hinges on whether Bitcoin can maintain its position above the $97,100 cost basis.
Market Sentiment and Technical Outlook
The current setup presents a classic bull vs. bear battleground:
- Bullish Case: If Bitcoin holds above $97,100 and begins to build volume toward $114,800, it could reignite FOMO (fear of missing out) among retail and institutional investors. Historical patterns show that breaks above +1STD levels often precede parabolic rallies, especially when supported by strong on-chain fundamentals.
- Bearish Risk: A failure to defend $97,100 increases the probability of a retest at $83,200. Given that this level sits well below both the STH and Long-Term Holder (LTH) cost bases, such a move could erode confidence and prompt widespread deleveraging across crypto derivatives markets.
Market analysts emphasize that while macro headlines may spark short-term moves, the underlying on-chain structure remains the best predictor of sustainable trends.
Why On-Chain Data Matters
On-chain metrics like the STH cost basis offer an objective lens into market behavior. Unlike sentiment polls or social media buzz, blockchain data reflects actual wallet activity—showing who is buying, selling, or holding.
For example:
- A rising STH cost basis indicates that new buyers are entering at higher prices, reinforcing bullish conviction.
- A flattening or declining cost basis may signal capitulation or distribution by short-term investors.
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These insights are invaluable for traders aiming to align with smart money flows rather than emotional market noise.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: What is the Short-Term Holder (STH) cost basis?
A: The STH cost basis is the average purchase price of Bitcoin held by investors who acquired their coins within the last 155 days. It serves as a key indicator of market sentiment and momentum.
Q: Why is $97,100 so important for Bitcoin?
A: This is the current STH cost basis. Holding above this level suggests confidence among recent buyers. A drop below it could trigger selling pressure and signal weakening bullish momentum.
Q: What happens if Bitcoin breaks $114,800?
A: A confirmed breakout above $114,800—the +1STD level—could lead to accelerated buying, potentially pushing Bitcoin into new all-time high territory with strong institutional participation.
Q: What does a fall below $83,200 mean for the market?
A: That level represents a critical support zone. A sustained break below it would indicate a structural bearish shift and could lead to further downside pressure and liquidations.
Q: How reliable is Glassnode’s Work of Cost (WOC) model?
A: The WOC framework has historically provided accurate forecasts during key market inflection points by combining cost basis data with statistical modeling.
Q: Is low trading volume bullish or bearish for Bitcoin?
A: Low volume during consolidation isn’t inherently bearish. It often precedes volatility expansion—either upward or downward—once directionality resumes.
Final Thoughts: A Pivotal Moment for Bitcoin
Bitcoin stands at a decisive juncture in 2025. With price hovering above the $97,100 STH cost basis, the path remains open for a rally toward $114,800 and beyond. However, the reduced trading volume underscores caution in the marketplace.
Investors should monitor both on-chain activity and macro developments closely. While political drama may fuel headlines, it's the underlying data—like cost basis trends and holder behavior—that ultimately shapes long-term outcomes.
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For traders and long-term holders alike, understanding these key levels isn't just informative—it's essential for navigating one of the most dynamic phases in Bitcoin’s history.
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